Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

The super tight 13th District race in California between Republican Rep. John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray saw a critical update yesterday evening, as newly processed votes gave Gray the slimmest of leads. Gray's home turf of Merced County added around 2,400 votes to its tally, a batch that Gray won about 57%-43%. That was enough to spring the Democrat into a lead of around 100 raw votes district-wide — his first lead in the contest since election night. A few smaller updates from other places in the district brought Gray's overall lead to 182 votes (50.04% to 49.96%) at the end of the night.

There are now very few unprocessed ballots remaining in the 13th District — maybe 1,000 at most — although perhaps a couple thousand votes that need signature cures to count are also outstanding. It ain't over until it's over, though, and a race this close could precipitate a recount.

Last night, Orange County reported 354 more votes in California's 45th District, and Democrat Derek Tran's lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel expanded from 545 votes to 581 votes. While that lead isn't overwhelming, Steel needs to start making up ground pronto: As California elections analyst Rob Pyers noted, Tran has gained ground in every vote update in the district since 1:20 a.m. Pacific on Nov. 6.

Although there are over 30,000 ballots left to process in Los Angeles and Orange counties, only a small fraction of each county is in California's 45th, so I estimate that there are only about 3,000 unprocessed ballots left in the district. Both counties are expected to release more results tonight, and if Steel doesn't start to turn things around, this race could be projected for Tran fairly soon.

Yesterday, election officials in Minnesota conducted a partial recount of Minnesota state House District 14B, one of two unprojected races that will determine control of the chamber. It barely changed the result: Democratic state Rep. Dan Wolgamott's lead went from 191 votes to 190 votes. The AP has not yet declared a winner in the district, but there doesn't appear to be anything in the way of Wolgamott being certified as the winner next month.

Last week, a recount similarly upheld Democrats' considerably narrower lead in state House District 54A, but we may not have heard the last of this district. The Republican candidate is expected to file a court challenge this week over the result — specifically, about 20 absentee ballots that aren't accounted for.

If Democrats win both districts, as expected, the Minnesota state House would be tied with 67 Democrats and 67 Republicans, forcing the two parties to share power. Under this scenario, each committee would have co-chairs — one Democrat and one Republican — but it is unclear who would serve as speaker.

If you're reading this blog, you probably know that we are still waiting for all the ballots to be counted in a couple of unresolved U.S. House races in California. But one thing you might not know is why California takes so long to count all its votes.

California isn't alone in this regard. Every state waits at least some period of time after Election Day to count certain types of ballots, such as overseas and military absentees (which take time to arrive) and provisional ballots (which must be double-checked to make sure the voter is eligible).

But there are some reasons why California takes especially long. First of all, California conducts its elections predominantly by mail, and mail-in ballots take longer to process and count because their signatures have to be verified, they have to be removed from envelopes, etc. This is also the reason other predominantly vote-by-mail states, like Nevada, take a long time to count. But one issue California has that Nevada doesn't is sheer size. The largest state in the union casts literally millions of votes, and it simply takes time to count them all.

California law also encourages a leisurely counting pace. The state allows mail ballots to arrive as late as one week after Election Day and still count (as long as they are postmarked by Election Day), which creates the opportunity for more people's votes to count, but also means results will take longer. California also doesn't require counties to finalize their results until 30 days after the election, and some counties take full advantage of that window — there was an excellent article in the Los Angeles Times last week about Lake County, California, and why officials there don't feel a sense of urgency to finish counting.

Of course, another part of the story is that if election officials had more resources (such as more advanced machines and more staffers), they would be able to count more quickly. According to a poll earlier this year by the pro-voting-rights Brennan Center for Justice, 83% of election officials said they needed more resources to keep up with administrative and security needs, and overall, election officials received $1 billion less in federal funding this year than in the 2020 election.