Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

Geoffrey, as you wrote in your preview of the Virginia legislative races, Senate District 16 may have been Democrats’ easiest pickup opportunity in the state Senate. Although it had a GOP incumbent, the district voted for Democrats by 6 points in the 2021 governor’s race and 10 points in 2022 House races. The real test for the party will be winning that 21st seat. Perhaps their best bet is Senate District 31 in the D.C. exurbs, where they currently lead 51 percent to 49 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 74 percent of the expected vote in, Beshear is still leading Cameron by 4 points, 52 to 48 percent. It's still early, but it's a promising sign for the incumbent.

—Monica Potts, 538

We're starting to see some early votes trickle in from the New Jersey state legislative races. In the 11th Legislative District, which is one of the state's most competitive, we've got a bit of votes counted but it's all early in-person and mail-in. Democratic state Sen. Vin Gopal is locked in a nasty fight with GOP challenger Steve Dnistrian. While Gopal leads 72 to 27 percent, per Monmouth County's elections reporting site, that will come down as election day ballots are counted.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Virginia's been counting votes for almost an hour and a half, but some key races are still very far from a conclusion. Still, in Virginia's state Senate, it looks like GOP Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is in trouble in the 16th District in the western Richmond suburbs. She's trailing Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg by about 3 points, but none of the more Democratic-leaning early vote has been reported yet. A Democratic victory there would probably put them at 20 seats, needing just one more in one of the other swing seats to capture an outright majority in the 40-seat chamber.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538