Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

The 538 Politics podcast recently posed this question to a group of experienced pollsters and analysts in an attempt to sift through the data on this upcoming election. From swing voters to economic sentiment, everyone's got their eyes on a different metric that could be key to understanding where things are headed.

Republican pollster Adam Geller is watching "Trump bros," a notable portion of the swing group of young men drawing both candidates to popular podcasts. The New York Times Polling Editor Ruth Igielnik is focused on whether voters feel that Trump or Harris' economic policies "help or hurt people like you." Lenny Bronner, senior data scientist at The Washington Post, is curious about the gap between presidential and Senate polling this cycle and what that could tell us about voters in key swing states. And J. Ann Selzer, known for her Iowa polling expertise, is wondering whether the low-propensity voters that helped Trump win back in 2016 will turn out this time around.

To hear more of the data points that seasoned election-watchers are following to unpack the 2024 election, check out this podcast.

The first election results will come in tonight shortly after 6 p.m. Eastern, but we will likely have to wait until Wednesday or even later to know who won. This is for two reasons: First, this is a really close race, and media outlets won't project a winner until they're absolutely certain that one candidate has an insurmountable lead. Second, it takes time for states to count the millions of ballots expected to be cast.

Each state counts votes on a different timeline. To help you get a sense for when to expect a projection in each state, we at 538 created this interactive that shows how quickly states counted their votes in 2022 and information from official sources about when to expect results this time around.

Roughly speaking, the seven main presidential swing states fall into three categories in this regard. First, Georgia and North Carolina are expected to count the quickest. Both of these states are expected to release a large chunk of their results shortly after polls close. Then, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin count at a moderate pace. They will probably be counting all through the night but should be done by Wednesday morning (although Pennsylvania could take longer). Finally, Arizona and Nevada always take days to count their votes, so if the presidential race comes down to those states, don't expect a projection until late in the week.

It's certainly been a long and winding journey, but Election Day 2024 is finally here!

This year's presidential contest started as a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, with the two matching up closely in the polls --- and in their historic levels of unpopularity. The summer saw no shortage of drama and upheaval as a disastrous debate performance by Biden brought calls for him to drop out of the race to a fever pitch. Shortly after, Republicans held their convention and rallied around Trump in the face of an assassination attempt By the time the Democratic convention rolled around, Biden had bowed out, and the race had reset itself with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic standard-bearer.

One place where the race remained remarkably stable, though, was in the polls, which fluctuated by just a few percentage points over the span of several months and two different campaigns. Heading into today, the contest between Trump and Harris is a virtual toss-up, and the polls are close enough that the race could very well be decided by a single state or even result in an Electoral College tie. Of course, we're also a normal polling error away from a blowout for either candidate. And after two consecutive presidential elections in which polls underestimated Trump's support, a question on every election watcher's mind is whether the same will be true this year.

Looking downballot, the outcome is similarly uncertain in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans are hoping to defend their narrow majority after a tumultuous couple years of their own. (Raise your hand if you googled "who is Mike Johnson" around this time last year.) On the other hand, Republicans are a clear favorite in the Senate in light of a map stacked against vulnerable Democrats.

Plus, hundreds of other elections will be decided today too --- among them, 11 governor's offices are up for grabs, and a wide slate of ballot measures could reshape the landscape for abortion rights, how Americans vote, and more.

As always, we're here to serve as your trusty guides throughout the day (and night, and week), with info on what to look out for and how to make sense of the results as they come in. Thanks for joining us!