What is the most valuable data point for understanding the 2024 election?
The 538 Politics podcast recently posed this question to a group of experienced pollsters and analysts in an attempt to sift through the data on this upcoming election. From swing voters to economic sentiment, everyone's got their eyes on a different metric that could be key to understanding where things are headed.
Republican pollster Adam Geller is watching "Trump bros," a notable portion of the swing group of young men drawing both candidates to popular podcasts. The New York Times Polling Editor Ruth Igielnik is focused on whether voters feel that Trump or Harris' economic policies "help or hurt people like you." Lenny Bronner, senior data scientist at The Washington Post, is curious about the gap between presidential and Senate polling this cycle and what that could tell us about voters in key swing states. And J. Ann Selzer, known for her Iowa polling expertise, is wondering whether the low-propensity voters that helped Trump win back in 2016 will turn out this time around.
To hear more of the data points that seasoned election-watchers are following to unpack the 2024 election, check out this podcast.