Would a big gender gap be a problem for Harris?
In the 2016 presidential race, Trump won 52% of men but just 39% of women, a 13-point gender gap, according to Pew's analysis of validated voters from their American Trends Panel. (Meanwhile, Clinton won just 41% of men but 54% of women, a 13-point gap in the opposite direction.) In 2020, that gap was smaller, largely because Biden did better with men than Clinton, winning 48% of men and 55% of women.
In every presidential election since 1980, women as a bloc have been more likely than men to vote for the Democratic candidate. They've also been more likely to turn out to vote than men, making them decisive. But as 2016 proved, winning women isn't enough to win the presidency.
This fact may explain why so much media attention has been paid to Trump's potential gains among young men this cycle. Young voters typically favor Democrats by wide margins, but several pre-election polls showed a gender gap among 18- to 29-year-olds that was much larger than gender gaps within other age cohorts. These and other polls suggest that Democrats' lock on young men is uncertain; a Data for Progress poll from early October showed a presidential tie (48% each) among men under 30. On the other side of that gap, what is near-certain is young women's support for Harris. In October, a Harvard Youth Poll showed Harris up 30 points among women under 30, and a SurveyMonkey/NBCNews poll showed Harris up 33 points.
Encouragingly for Harris, this group is also motivated to vote. According to a recent Pew survey, among voters ages 18 to 29 who plan to support Harris, 50% are extremely motivated to vote, compared to just 34% of young voters who say they support Trump. And this cycle, the abortion issue may further spur young women. According to a KFF panel, as of September, abortion is the top election issue for women under age 30. The same poll found that Democratic women are now more motivated to vote with Harris at the top of the ticket, compared to their responses in June, while Republican women are less motivated.
Like so many things in elections, whether a big gender gap in 2024 would be a major problem for Harris will come down to turnout: If high turnout among these Democratic-leaning female voters under 30 materializes and men make up a smaller portion of the overall vote share, even a larger-than-average gender gap might not spell doom.