Are Black voters really moving toward the GOP?
As a voting bloc, Black voters are loyally Democratic. They're so loyal, in fact, that 538 previously reported that they're a "captured" bloc — meaning they're ignored by one major political party (Republicans) and taken for granted by the other (Democrats).
But ahead of this year's election, there's polling suggesting the Black men, in particular, are cozying up to Trump. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Black voters from October, just 70% of Black men said that they planned on voting for Harris. Biden, by comparison, captured 85% of this bloc in 2020. And according to the University of Chicago's October GenForward poll, 26% of Black men between the ages of 18 and 40 said that they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, in contrast to just 12% of Black women in that age group who said the same.
While a rightward shift among men is in line with the gender gaps we're seeing more broadly this year, it's a relatively new phenomenon among Black voters. There's no one reason to pinpoint for this shift. Reporting from Al Jazeera, however, proposed that Black men are particularly keen on Trump's economic policies.
Meanwhile, Harris' campaign has tried to account for this Democratic fears that large swaths of Black voters might just sit out this year's election. In recent weeks, her campaign has made direct overtures to young Black voters, including participating in interviews with The Shade Room and Charlamagne tha God. And during an appearance in Pittsburgh last month, Barack Obama didn't mince words urging Black men to support Harris. "On the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences," the former president said of Harris. "And on the other side, you have someone who has consistently shown disregard, not just for the communities, but for you as a person."
It's possible, of course, that Black voters' shift toward the GOP is overstated. After all, Black voters (men included) are still overwhelmingly Democratic. But any marked shift toward Republicans ought to be a cause for concern for Democrats, especially in places like Georgia, a possible tipping-point state this year where around a third of the population is Black. Maybe the results of tonight's race will cause Democrats to stop seeing Black votes as a given — and Black voters can finally be freed of captured status.