Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state
After voting for the Democratic candidate in each presidential election since 1992, Pennsylvania narrowly flipped into Trump's camp in 2016, only to swing back to Biden in 2020. But Biden won by only 1 percentage point, and the state once again looks to be extremely close this time around, with 538's final forecast of the state showing essentially a tied race.
Not coincidentally, Pennsylvania is the most-polled state in the 2024 election cycle. For one thing, its 19 electoral votes make it the largest of the seven core swing states. And because of its size and competitiveness, Pennsylvania is also the most likely "tipping-point" state in 538's presidential election forecast.
Like many of the key states this cycle, one of the main dividing lines in the Pennsylvania electorate is education, particularly among white voters. Pennsylvania's overall population is whiter than the country's as a whole: about 73% non-Hispanic white compared with 57% nationally. Within the white population is a large and notable chunk of the state's electorate: white voters without a four-year college degree, who accounted for 45% of Pennsylvania's voters in 2020, per exit polls. Nationally, this GOP-leaning group has shifted further to the right in the Trump years.
Conversely, Democrats have made gains nationally among white voters with at least a four-year college degree, and the same is true in Pennsylvania. For instance, Philadelphia's four suburban collar counties are fairly white and have nearly 30% of the state's population that is white with a college degree. Not coincidentally, the quartet has collectively trended more Democratic than anywhere else in the state in recent years, backing Obama by 10 points in 2012 and Biden by 19 points in 2020, even as the state as a whole moved to the right over that time span.
As the state's largest city, Philadelphia forms a key part of the state's electoral math. But while the city's collar counties have moved left, the city proper actually has shifted somewhat to the right, as Democrats' substantial edge there declined by about 4 points in each of the last two presidential cycles. And Black voters are a big part of the equation here: While only about 1 in 10 of Pennsylvania's voters identified as Black in 2020, nearly half the state's Black population lives in Philadelphia. And while Democrats appear to have gained in the more well-educated and affluent parts of Philadelphia, predominantly Black precincts have experienced at least a small decline in Democratic support and, also importantly, turnout rates. Recent polling suggests this could be a big concern for Harris: An average of polls in the state found her ahead 79% to 17% among Black voters, well down from Biden's advantage in 2020 of 92% to 7%, according to exit polls.
And there's more to watch in Pennsylvania than just the presidential race. First, a critical Senate race between three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick will be key to Democrat's slim chances to hold the chamber. Casey is favored in our final election forecast, winning 72 in 100 simulations, but that still leaves a real chance for McCormick to pick up a surprise win in the state.
There's also at least three highly competitive House seats, in the 7th, 8th and 10th Districts. All of these feature incumbents representing areas that have been trending away from their party over the last few cycles. And finally, the contests for attorney general, auditor general, treasurer and control of the state House are all competitive.