Exit polls 2024: Deep economic discontent with Biden drove voters to Trump

Broad economic discontent, sharp divisions about the nation's future and polarized views of the major-party candidates mark voter attitudes nationally in ABC News preliminary exit poll results of the 2024 election.

Nationally, the share of people saying they've gotten worse off under the current administration (45%) is the highest in presidential exit polls that have asked the question -- even surpassing the 42% "worse off" in 2008, in the teeth of the Great Recession.

The state of democracy narrowly prevailed as the most important issue to voters out of five tested in the exit poll.

Preliminary results may change as exit polls are updated throughout election night and beyond.

The country and democracy

Voters broadly express more negative than positive views about the country's direction: Just 26% are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going, versus 72% dissatisfied or angry.

More voters see American democracy as threatened (73%) than secure (25%). Still, about 6 in 10 in these preliminary exit poll results say the country's best days are ahead of it, versus about a third who say the country's best days are in the past.

Across the seven swing states, anywhere from 68% to 73% of voters think democracy in this country is threatened.

Extremism and candidate favorability

Fifty-five percent call Trump's views "too extreme," and he's underwater in personal favorability, 44%-55%. Fewer call Harris' views too extreme (46%), though she's also underwater in personal favorability, albeit slightly, 48%-50%.

Trump, in the preliminary results, is slightly less apt in the seven swing states to be seen as "too extreme" than he is nationally, but still more so than Harris.

Favorability isn't determinative: Just 40% saw Trump favorably in 2016, when he won the Electoral College (albeit not the popular vote). One reason is that almost as few, 43%, had a favorable view of his opponent that year, Hillary Clinton. (In 2020, Trump's favorability rating was 46%; Joe Biden's was 52%.)

Underscoring the emotion associated with the contest, preliminarily 36% of voters say they'd be "scared" if Trump were elected, while 29% would be scared by a Harris win.

In terms of personal attributes, voters in preliminary results pick having the ability to lead as tops among four that were tested in the exit poll.

The economy and Biden

The economy remains a key irritant. Voters say it's in bad shape by 67%-32%. And 45% say their own financial situation is worse now than four years ago, versus 30% the same, with just 24% doing better. The "worse off" number exceeds its 2008 level, then 42%, and far outpaces its shares in 2020 (20%) and 2016 (28%).

President Joe Biden takes the heat, with just a 41% job approval rating (58% disapprove). It's been a challenge for Harris to persuade voters she's taking a new direction from Biden's. (Biden's approval rating is the lowest for an incumbent president in exit polls since George W. Bush's 27% as he left office in 2008. Trump managed 50% job approval in 2020, yet Biden beat him anyway.)

Biden is underwater in favorability in the seven swing states.

In Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, more than half of voters said they were worse off now than they were four years ago. In the other four swing states, the percentage of voters who said the same ranged from 45% to 49%.

Top issues

The state of democracy prevails narrowly as the most important issue to voters out of five tested in the exit polls. Thirty-five percent of voters ranked it as their top issue, followed by 31% who said the economy, 14% who said abortion, 11% who said immigration and 4% who said foreign policy.

Abortion stands out in importance to women, at 19% in preliminary results, versus 8% among men, and rises to 42% among women younger than 30. (Women account for 53% of all voters, preliminarily; men, 47%.)

Trump is more trusted than Harris on immigration and the economy in the preliminary exit polls while Harris leads Trump in trust on abortion.

Sixty-six percent overall say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a central focus of Harris's campaign. (Support for legal abortion hit a low in exit polls, 51%, in 2020; its previous peak was 63% in 1992.)

Legal abortion wins majority backing in all seven swing states from 60% to 69%.

On immigration, a central focus for Trump, 39% say most undocumented immigrants should be deported, up from 26% in 2016 and 28% in 2012. Fifty-seven percent say undocumented immigrants instead should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.

Swing states

Georgia

President Biden's 11,779-vote victory four years ago made him the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1992. Post-election, a recorded call of Trump pressuring Georgia's secretary of state to "find" the votes Trump needed focused the nation on Georgia's election integrity.

In preliminary exit poll results, 81% of Georgia voters say they're very or somewhat confident the state's elections are being conducted fairly and accurately, more than say so nationally (68%). These views are bipartisan, ranging from 94% of Democrats to 78% of independents and 72% of Republicans.

Regardless, 68% of Georgia voters overall see U.S. democracy as somewhat or very threatened.

Moreover, 42% of Trump voters in these preliminary results say that if he loses Georgia's official vote count, he should challenge the results rather than accept them. Half as many supporters of Kamala Harris say she should challenge a losing result, 21%.

Forty percent of Georgia voters rate the economy as the most important issue in their vote, tops among five issues tested and more than the 31% who say so nationally. That's driven in part by the 52% who say they're worse off financially than four years ago, up considerably from just 16% in 2020 and surpassing a previous high of 33% in available exit polls since 1992. About three-quarters (73%) say the national economy is in not so good or poor shape, surpassing the 67% who say so nationally.

Thirty percent of Georgia voters in these preliminary results are Black, on par with the share in 2020 (29%) and the most of any swing state. Georgia voters overall divide evenly between Harris and Trump in trust to handle racial issues, 50%-48%; 32% of white voters pick Harris on this question, rising to 89% of Black voters.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, voters are split on whether federal hurricane aid is going to the people who need it: 47% think it is, while 50% say it's not.

North Carolina

North Carolina has voted Republican in all but two presidential elections since 1968 (2008 and 1976), including by 1.3 percentage points for Trump in 2020 (his narrowest victory that year). Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s results among college-educated white voters, moderates and men, making it a closer contest than in 2016, but Trump was bolstered by strong support from conservatives, evangelical white Christians and white voters without college degrees.

Forty-seven percent in the state say they're worse off now than when Biden became president, the most in available North Carolina exit polls since 1992. Four years ago, fewer than half as many, 20%, said they'd gotten worse off under Trump.

It follows that the economy is cited by 36% as the most important issue in their vote, although about as many, 32%, cite the state of democracy as their top issue. Among attributes, 32% cite "the ability to lead" as most important; 27% pick "can bring needed change."

Nearly 4 in 10 voters are conservative and 31% are white evangelical Christians, 9 points more than their share nationally, At the same time, 60% of North Carolina voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania may be this year’s tipping-point state. After voting for Trump by less than 1 percentage point in 2016, the aptly nicknamed Keystone State flipped to Biden in 2020, when he edged out Trump by just over 1 point -- or roughly 80,500 votes.

Trump is underwater in personal favorability in preliminary exit poll results, with 47% expressing a favorable opinion of him overall, 51% unfavorable. (Still, that’s slightly better than his ratings nationally, 44%-54% favorable-unfavorable.) Trump did even worse in favorability when he won the state in 2016 -- but benefited that year from an equally unpopular opponent in Hillary Clinton. In this year’s preliminary results, Kamala Harris is equally as unpopular as Trump, 46%-53%, favorable-unfavorable.

Issues can matter as much or more than personal ratings -- and 33% say the state of democracy is the most important issue in their vote for president, about even with the 35% who say so nationally. Thirty percent in Pennsylvania pick the economy as their top issue, again similar to the share who say so nationally (31 percent).

In a liability for Harris, 50% of voters say their family’s financial situation is worse today compared with four years ago, more than 45% who say so nationally and a high in available exit polls since 1992. Just 22% say their financial situation has gotten better.

More voters favor than oppose the use of fracking in Pennsylvania, 55%-36%. Harris has said she won’t ban fracking if elected; she’s been criticized for reversing her position on the issue since her first presidential run.

Michigan

Trump’s narrow victory in Michigan in 2016 marked the only time a Republican presidential candidate carried the state since 1988. Biden won it back by 3 points in 2020, improving on Hillary Clinton’s results among independents, voters from union households and suburban voters. All three groups may be key again this year.

Again, the democracy was the top issue for most voters, according to preliminary results: 35% of Michigan voters said the state of democracy mattered in deciding their votes. Fewer, 25%, said the economy.

A plurality of Michigan voters (38%) say U.S. support for Israel is about right; the rest divide between saying it's too strong (29%) or not strong enough (27%). Michigan has the country’s highest proportion of Arab Americans, a small but potentially important group from which Harris and Trump have vied for support.

Arizona

Arizona has voted for the Democratic candidate for president just twice since 1952: in 1996 and in 2020, when Biden won the state by 10,457 votes, his narrowest victory. One initiative is on the ballot that may draw voters especially concerned about abortion, as is another that may attract those favoring a crackdown on undocumented immigrants.

Fifty-one percent of Arizona voters say they've gotten worse off financially under the Biden administration, more than the 45% who say so nationally and up dramatically from 15% in Arizona in 2020.

Sixty-seven percent of Arizona voters in preliminary exit poll results say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, up from 53% in 2020 (and a slight increase from 62% in 2022). On the ballot this year is Proposition 139, which would add the right to an abortion to the Arizona state constitution.

Fifty-five percent say most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, while 41% say they should be deported to the countries they came from. This is similar to a 57%-39% result nationally. (This year’s proposition would give state and local law enforcement the right to question, arrest, detain and prosecute anyone suspected of having crossed the border outside a legal port of entry.)

Wisconsin

Thirty-five percent of Wisconsin voters in preliminary exit poll results say the economy mattered most in their choice for president, slightly more than 31% nationally. Fifty-two percent say their family’s financial situation has worsened in the past four years, surpassing the previous high of 35% in 2012 and more than 45% who say so nationally. Just 21% say their financial situation has improved.

The state of the democracy virtually matches the economy as the top issue, with 33% saying it mattered most in their vote for president. A broad 72% of Wisconsin voters say democracy in the U.S. is threatened. At the same time, 80% are confident that elections in their state are being conducted fairly and accurately -- more than say so nationally, 68%.

With the legality of abortion under dispute in the state, 17% of voters say abortion was the most important issue in their choice for president, ranking behind the economy and democracy as most important issues. Sixty-eight percent of Wisconsin voters think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, up sharply from 54% in 2020.