Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Concerns about the state of the economy continue to be top of mind for voters as a whole, but in recent months another policy issue has emerged as an almost-equally high priority for Republicans in particular: immigration.

According to an August/September Pew Research Center poll, the most important issue for Trump voters are the economy (93%), immigration (82%), and violent crime (76%). Harris supporters, by comparison, said they were most concerned with health care (76%), Supreme Court appointments (73%) and the economy (68%).

It makes sense that immigration issues take center stage for Trump supporters specifically. Racist and xenophobic messaging toward immigrants fueled most of Trump's 2016 campaign and he's now promised that, if elected, he would conduct the largest deportation in American history. Republican elected officials have taken actions to amplify voter concerns about immigrants. Several GOP governors, for instance, have spent millions of dollars busing migrants out of their states and into Democrat-led cities, a move many liberals decried as dehumanizing. And during the Republican National Convention this summer, speakers spent much of their time railing against Biden's immigration policies. Perhaps the most succinct summary of where the party is now came from Kari Lake, the Republican Senate nominee from Arizona. The goal of the GOP, she said, must be to "stop the Bidenvasion and build the wall."

This rhetoric aligns with where Republican voters are on the issue of immigration. While a majority of Americans (61%) told pollsters this summer that immigrants from other countries have a largely positive effect on American society, an equal percentage of Republicans instead felt that immigrants had a negative influence.

These findings might be due to the fact that migrant counters at the U.S.-Mexico border hit a record high at the end of last year. And even though they've since decreased, the perception that there's a so-called "invasion" at the Southern border has appeared to hurt Democrats: September polling from YouGov found that voters trust Trump over Harris on handling immigration. It's unclear, of course, just how much this will buoy Trump's campaign, as 538's final forecast essentially shows the presidential candidates in a tie.

Plus, voters also place high importance on providing a path to legal status to undocumented immigrants, a policy more aligned with Harris and Democrats. In a tight race like this, it's possible that whoever can signal to voters that they have a plan to address border security while helping to develop a path to citizenship could be given the chance to implement said plans as the next president.

In the 2020 election, close results led to delays, recounts, audits and litigation, which raised questions about electoral processes and contributed to widespread claims of misinformation among the public. According to a U.S Election Assistance Commission report, 43% of voters used mail-in ballots in 2020 to vote. This influx of ballots, coupled with narrow margins in key states, meant Americans had to wait four days until the winner of the election was projected. However on election night and in the months after, Trump declared victory despite losing and attempting to overturn results he claimed were fraudulent.

The 2024 election could be the most heavily-litigated election in U.S. history, with over 165 lawsuits already filed and more expected. On the 538 Politics podcast last week, we tried to understand what is driving this historic level of litigation and the potential misinformation and additional legal challenges we can expect after Election Day. Since 2020, there has been a rise in election certification disputes, reports of harassment targeting local election officials and changes to voting laws across several battleground states.

The race is close, and while we cannot predict what will happen after Election Day, Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center for Justice sat down with us to provide a clearer picture. For more details, check out the podcast.

They've been overshadowed by the presidential and congressional races, but there are also gubernatorial races in 11 states and two territories being decided today. Most of them will be easy wins for the incumbent party, but there are a couple races that could be competitive.

According to polling, the closest race is in New Hampshire. Popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is retiring, giving Democrats a ripe pick-up opportunity in what has become a light-blue state. According to an average of the last five polls of the race, Republican former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig, the former mayor of Manchester, were tied 48% to 48%.

The other competitive race is a bit of a surprise — Indiana. Republican Sen. Mike Braun started off the cycle as the heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb. But the state GOP nominated a controversial pastor, Micah Beckwith, to be his running mate, and the presence of a strong-ish Libertarian candidate in the race could eat into Republican support. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, could have crossover appeal as a former Republican. Only one pollster, ActiVote, has surveyed this race in October, and its most recent poll found Braun leading McCormick 56% to 44%.

Weather forecasts are predicting rain this Election Day in the middle of the country, from the Great Lakes south to Louisiana. That includes two key swing states — Michigan and Wisconsin. Will it keep voters away?

Whether the weather can influence election results has been studied a lot. There's some evidence that rain might slightly depress in-person turnout, but not really swing the outcome of elections. On top of that, most states in recent years have increased alternative options, like mail-in and early voting, potentially offsetting the impacts of any dreariness that might inspire people to stay snuggled up inside instead of lining up outside busy polling places. A study from North Carolina from 2012-2020 found that turnout decreased about 1% on rainy election days. In a close election, that could be enough to make a difference, but close elections are also more likely to motivate more voters to get to the ballot box no matter what.

Weather disasters might be a different story, however. North Carolina, which Trump won by only 1.3 percentage points in 2020, is still reeling from Hurricane Helene. Almost all of the counties affected by Helene voted for Trump in 2020, meaning low turnout there could cost him some votes — though it's unlikely they'd be enough to impact the statewide outcome in anything but the closest of contests. State officials there have made efforts to adjust polling places and hours to accommodate people, and the state set a turnout record for the first day of early voting.