Will Republicans make inroads in Texas’s border-area congressional seats?
In the Lone Star State, most political observers will be keeping an eye on the Texas Senate race (which I previewed here. But I'll also be keeping an eye on three congressional races taking places in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34.
Two of these three seats are represented by Democrats — Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen are the incumbents for TX-28 and TX-34, respectively. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report suggests suggests that these two seats should remain Democratic, but the races could still be competitive. Cuellar was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering, which could hurt him in the polls. Gonzalez, on the other hand, faces a comeback bid against former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores. As a result, national Republicans are pouring a ton of money into this seat to help clinch her victory. What's more, these two have gone head-to-head once before. Gonzalez unseated Flores in 2022 after serving three terms in the neighboring 15th District, which was redrawn during the 2021 redistricting process to be more favorable to Republicans.
In the 15th District, meanwhile, Democrat Michelle Vallejo is making another run against freshman Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a Republican. In 2022, this was considered one of the more competitive congressional races in Texas and De La Cruz's win was viewed as a watershed moment in Texas Republicans' outreach to Latino voters. With her victory in 2022, De La Cruz became the first Republican to ever represent the district. This year, however, it looks as though De La Cruz is more-certain to win reelection, as the Cook Political Report named this a "likely Republican" seat. But Vallejo has somewhat abandoned some of the progressive stances that made her a darling of the left just two years prior. This year, she's joined Rep. Colin Allred (the state's Democratic Senate candidate) in criticizing so-called "chaos" at the Texas-Mexico border — a pivot to the middle that angered some of her past supporters. Given that border security and immigration-related issues are top of mind for Texans, it makes some sense that Vallejo would try to moderate her views in order to attract some disaffected Republicans or independents. But it's unclear if this move will ultimately help her reach the 50% vote threshold. The available polling and fundraising we have, at least, suggests that this race is still very much De La Cruz's to lose.
