Early marker in Virginia suggests Harris leads there, but may have reason to worry
Loudoun County outside of the nation's capitol contributed the third-largest share of Virginia's statewide vote in 2020 (4.4%), and with 95% of its expected vote reporting, Harris clearly leads there by about 16 points, 56% to 40%. That puts her ahead our benchmark for her in Loudoun (Harris +12), but puts her well behind Biden's 25-point margin there in 2020. So on the one hand, Harris may be in a position to win Virginia. However, Loudoun is a highly affluent, highly educated county — the kind of place Harris may need to improve on nationally if she's losing ground in other sorts of places. It is true, however, that Loudoun took a sharp turn to the right in the state's 2021 gubernatorial election, which the Democratic nominee carried by only 11 points en route to a 2-point loss statewide. So we'll want to keep seeing data from other spots before saying Loudoun is a signal of a national trend.
