Election Day 2024 live results: Trump projected to win Pa., third swing state

As expected, Mississippi’s Senate race has been projected by ABC for Roger Wicker, the longtime Republican incumbent. In that race, Wicker is facing Democratic challenger Ty Perkins. In 2018, which was a Democratic-leaning year generally, Wicker still beat his Democratic challenger by almost 20 percentage points.

Of any state, Mississippi has the highest fraction of African Americans, and voting there tends to be very racially polarized. As a result, it has relatively little year-to-year variation in its federal races (although a Democratic gubernatorial candidate did make last year’s gubernatorial election interesting, losing by only 3 percentage points.

Only 20% of the expected vote is reporting in Wisconsin, but I can already tell it's shaping up to be another photo finish there. Currently, Harris has 51% and Trump has 47%. In the Senate race, though, Democrat Tammy Baldwin is running slightly ahead of Harris. She currently has 55% to Republican Eric Hovde's 43%.

In many swing states, abortion was a top three issue for Americans as they weighed how to vote in this election. But other issues, such as the economy and immigration, also claimed their attention. How much will abortion matter in the end?

Polling from KFF, a nonprofit health policy research, polling and news organization, has found that its a top issue for women voters under 30, with 40% saying its the No. 1 issue determining their vote. And women voters of all ages feel that the election could have a major impact on abortion access, and felt more hopeful and satisfied with Harris as a candidate after Biden left the race and she became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Voters trust Harris more on the issue more than Trump, according to polling. An AP/Norc poll from October found 52% of registered voters gave her an advantage on the issue, compared to 28% who trusted Trump more. Whether that makes a difference for Harris -- or Democrats in general -- in swing states tonight, though, is one of the issues we’ll be watching closely.

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How will reproductive rights impact the 2024 election?

Americans feel what happens on the question of abortion will be very different if Democrats win or if Republicans win.

REUTERS / Octavio Jones

With 32% of the expected vote reporting in the open race in Alabama's 2nd District, Figures, the Democrat, is ahead of Dobson, the Republican, 62% to 38%. Dobson, one of just several non-incumbent Republican women running in somewhat competitive races today, isn't favored in our forecast, winning just nine-in-100 simulations. I'll be watching this race and a few others where GOP women could stand to gain ground tonight.