Big picture, things are shaping up as expected
Let's zoom out for a second. I'm thinking of the swing states in two categories right now. First, the Southeastern states, where a good amount of the vote is counted and the trends are looking good for Trump. In North Carolina, it's 52-47% Trump with 66% of the vote counted. In Georgia, it's 52-47% Trump with 79% of the vote counted.
Second, the northern battleground states, where we still have a pretty incomplete picture and anything could still happen. Right now, Pennsylvania is 50-50% with 44% reporting; Wisconsin is 50-48% for Harris with 35% reporting; and Michigan is 52-47% for Harris with 16% reporting.