Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

It's now after 10 p.m. Eastern, which means all polling places have closed in Montana, Nevada and Utah. Here are our forecasts for the races in those states:

Let's zoom out for a second. I'm thinking of the swing states in two categories right now. First, the Southeastern states, where a good amount of the vote is counted and the trends are looking good for Trump. In North Carolina, it's 52-47% Trump with 66% of the vote counted. In Georgia, it's 52-47% Trump with 79% of the vote counted.

Second, the northern battleground states, where we still have a pretty incomplete picture and anything could still happen. Right now, Pennsylvania is 50-50% with 44% reporting; Wisconsin is 50-48% for Harris with 35% reporting; and Michigan is 52-47% for Harris with 16% reporting.

As we watch results come in and slice and dice the political geography of the most competitive states, I'm cautiously watching a few bellwether areas. Semafor's David Weigel identifies Hamilton County, Indiana, as such a place to watch, where Trump's victory there was more narrow than Republican victories in the past. It's a suburban area that illustrates the general shift toward the Democrats in the suburbs. Right now, with 94% of the expected vote reported, Trump is on track with the same vote share he won there in 2020 -- 52%. Another county that Weigel called attention to is DeKalb County in Georgia, which he considers an indicator of whether Trump is really improving his performance with Black voters. With 87% of the expected vote counted, Trump is at 17% compared with 16% in 2020.

Some observers also look at congressional districts rather than counties. One district that's drawn some attention, especially given all the focus on Pennsylvania, is Pennsylvania’s 7th District, where Democrat Susan Wild is running for reelection. It's probably too early to learn much from this race, with about 52% of votes in -- but Wild’s Republican opponent, Ryan Mackenzie, has a narrow lead.

So there's not much that's new here, and it's worth thinking a bit more deeply about the whole idea of bellwethers, which suggest the power of national trends -- across demographic groups or geographic categories (e.g., suburban voters). But we don't really know exactly what it all means until we have more data.

We are watching the 10 states with abortion measures on the ballot tonight. A few of these have been called: As we noted moments ago, in Florida, the abortion amendment is projected to fail to reach the 60% threshold needed to pass. In Maryland, Question 1, which would add a section to the state constitution guaranteeing a right to reproductive freedom, is projected to pass, with 74% voting for the amendment with 63% of the expected vote reporting. In New York, Proposition 1, which would also change their constitution to protect reproductive freedom, is projected to pass, with 68% voting yes with 49% of the expected vote reporting.

We’re watching the ballot measures in remaining states which remain too close to call, and will continue to update the liveblog throughout the night.