Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

The final electoral college count is Trump: 312, Harris: 226.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: November 9, 2024, 9:00 PM EST

Just days after former President Donald Trump was projected to have won the presidency, Trump's transition team operation has begun, with transition co-chairs confirming that he will be selecting personnel to serve under his leadership in the coming days.

Trump is also the projected winner in Arizona, a state the former president flipped after losing it to Joe Biden in 2020.

Trump's projected win in the vital swing state marks a sweep of the battleground states.

Dan Hopkins Image
Nov 05, 2024, 10:19 PM EST

Mississippi projected to go to Trump

Mississippi and its six Electoral College votes are projected to go to Trump. Like its neighbor Alabama, Mississippi was last won by a Democrat in 1976, when Southerner Jimmy Carter won the presidency in what was the last gasp of the "Solid South." What was once one of the most reliable Democratic regions of the country is now one of the most reliably Republican regions.

Donald Trump will win Mississippi and Ohio, ABC News Projects. In Maryland Senate race, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win, ABC News projects. She will become Maryland's first Black senator.
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Election 2024: Donald Trump projected to win Miss., Ohio

Donald Trump will win Mississippi and Ohio, ABC News Projects. In Maryland Senate race, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win, ABC News projects. She will become Maryland's first Black senator.
ABCNews.com
Nov 05, 2024, 10:13 PM EST

More polls closed at 10 p.m.

It's now after 10 p.m. Eastern, which means all polling places have closed in Montana, Nevada and Utah. Here are our forecasts for the races in those states:

Nathaniel Rakich Image
Nov 05, 2024, 10:14 PM EST

Big picture, things are shaping up as expected

Let's zoom out for a second. I'm thinking of the swing states in two categories right now. First, the Southeastern states, where a good amount of the vote is counted and the trends are looking good for Trump. In North Carolina, it's 52-47% Trump with 66% of the vote counted. In Georgia, it's 52-47% Trump with 79% of the vote counted.

Second, the northern battleground states, where we still have a pretty incomplete picture and anything could still happen. Right now, Pennsylvania is 50-50% with 44% reporting; Wisconsin is 50-48% for Harris with 35% reporting; and Michigan is 52-47% for Harris with 16% reporting.

Julia Azari Image
Nov 05, 2024, 10:12 PM EST

What can we learn from so-called bellwethers?

As we watch results come in and slice and dice the political geography of the most competitive states, I'm cautiously watching a few bellwether areas. Semafor's David Weigel identifies Hamilton County, Indiana, as such a place to watch, where Trump's victory there was more narrow than Republican victories in the past. It's a suburban area that illustrates the general shift toward the Democrats in the suburbs. Right now, with 94% of the expected vote reported, Trump is on track with the same vote share he won there in 2020 -- 52%. Another county that Weigel called attention to is DeKalb County in Georgia, which he considers an indicator of whether Trump is really improving his performance with Black voters. With 87% of the expected vote counted, Trump is at 17% compared with 16% in 2020.

Some observers also look at congressional districts rather than counties. One district that's drawn some attention, especially given all the focus on Pennsylvania, is Pennsylvania’s 7th District, where Democrat Susan Wild is running for reelection. It's probably too early to learn much from this race, with about 52% of votes in -- but Wild’s Republican opponent, Ryan Mackenzie, has a narrow lead.

So there's not much that's new here, and it's worth thinking a bit more deeply about the whole idea of bellwethers, which suggest the power of national trends -- across demographic groups or geographic categories (e.g., suburban voters). But we don't really know exactly what it all means until we have more data.