Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Time for a quick overview of where things stand in the Senate. Republicans flipped West Virginia earlier to move the Senate to 50-50, and two other seats could very well flip to them. In Ohio, 90% of the expected vote has been reported, and Republican Bernie Moreno leads Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, 51% to 46%. Brown looks in very rough shape, needing a ton of help from the remaining votes in parts of Cleveland and northern Ohio to close that gap. In Montana, we barely have any votes reporting so far, but Republican Tim Sheehy is ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester 56% to 43%.

If they win those two with West Virginia, Republicans would hold 52 seats. But with the presidential race so close in some of the key swing states, the GOP could perhaps add as many as three more to get to 55 seats. In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr by 1 point, 49% to 48%, with 68% of the expected vote reporting. In Wisconsin, 60% of the expected vote has reported, and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde are tied at 49%. In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers leads Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 49% to 48%. About the only good news for Democrats in the key races right now is that Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 7 points in Arizona with about half the expected vote reporting.

ABC News is projecting that Harris will win Oregon's eight electoral votes. But we're still watching a few congressional races there that haven't been called.

With 90% of the expected vote reporting, Marcy Kaptur, the incumbent Democrat representing Toledo and parts of rural northeastern Ohio, is currently trailing challenger Derek Merrin by just 0.4 points (or less than 2,000 votes). The contest has been flopping back and forth all night. That's obviously too close to say anything about how the district may ultimately go, but it's notable in how far this departed from our model's expectations and other indicators in the district. The polls had Katpur leading by 11; the fundamentals saw a closer race, at D+4. At this point we're very likely to end up closer to those fundamentals and the expert race raters than the polls, even if she does win.

Like I remind people, we should expect "likely" House ratings to go the other way about 10-15% of the time. This year, that would be five to six seats. We'll keep an eye on other plausible House upsets and report back.

The vibe at Trump's watch party has significantly shifted to a livelier mood in the last hour.

CNN is playing on the TV screen, and as returns started rolling in showing Trump with a lead in battleground states, the campaign briefly turned off the news and started playing a supercut video of Trump dancing while YMCA was blasting.

People were mimicking Trump's dancing, bouncing around as we heard multiple cheers throughout the convention ballroom.