Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright had managed to hold onto a GOP-leaning seat for three cycles, but his ability to win enough conservative voters to hold the seat appears to have run its course. ABC News has projected that Republican Robert Bresnahan will defeat Cartwright, making it a GOP pickup. The win is part of a stronger GOP showing in northeast Pennsylvania, which is part of the broader Democratic weakness in Pennsylvania that has put Harris in a trailing position.

As election results are tabulated, the results we have so far for Texas's 28th District suggest that Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar might win reelection — but only barely so. With 80% of the vote in, Cuellar only leads his challenger, Republican Jay Furman, by four percentage points.

If this trend continues, it would represent a marked shift to the right for the district, which stretches from San Antonio to the southernmost point of the Texas-Mexico border. In 2022, Cuellar sailed to reelection by 14 points. At the time, his overwhelming win was viewed as somewhat surprising since Cuellar's home and office were raided by the FBI in the week's before the 2022 primary election. Cuellar has long denied any wrongdoing.

It seems like Cuellar, who was first elected in 2004, might be able to hold onto his seat tonight. But he'll have to work for it. And — who knows — maybe winning by a narrow margin tonight will convince Cuellar to fall in line with his party more. Though he's a relatively reliable vote for the House Democratic Caucus, he's distanced himself from his more-liberal colleagues on a number of issues, including abortion. Notably, Cuellar is the only Democrat in the chamber who is anti-abortion. While his colleagues have called for federal protections for abortion, Cuellar has said that abortion-related policies should be left up to the states.

It's unclear how much of Cuellar's current vote margin is due to a rightward shift among Texas's voters who live along the state's southern border. It's also possible that Cuellar is suffering in the polls due to his own personal issues. He was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering.

Right now, the presidential race is looking good for Trump and the Republicans, who have already taken North Carolina and have more votes in all three Blue Wall states. In the Senate, the question mainly remains over the size of their gains.

But the House looks a bit different so far — with the caveat that it's early. But in wave elections, you often see seemingly safe members of the losing party go down to defeat, and so far, the Democrats are only behind in a single seat that was rated by the Cook Political Report as one that Democrats were expected to win (narrowly). That may well change as more ballots are counted — but it is also a quirk of American electoral geography that winning a trifecta means winning in a variety of different types of communities.

ABC News projects that Rep. Bryan Steil will win reelection in Wisconsin's 1st District. Our forecast rated this seat "Likely Republican," so this isn't necessarily a surprise, but Democrats were hopeful they could make inroads in this suburban district.