Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

While control of the House is still up in the air, should it fall into the GOP column, Trump would begin his second presidency once again with a unified government behind him, and we'd get an immediate sense of how his approach to governance may have changed and how closely Republicans fall in line behind him. I think it's worth reminding ourselves that another Trump candidacy, let alone presidency, was far from a given at the end of his last term.

Trump's first presidency was marked by some growing pains between his outsider, populist style and more establishment Republicans in Congress, particularly in the Senate. That caused some fits and starts in implementing an agenda — with Republicans sometimes seeming to govern in spite of Trump as much as with him or under his leadership. Even the end of his presidency was marked by Congress scrambling back into session to override his veto of a bipartisan defense policy bill on New Year's Day 2021.

Check that date — it was just a few days before the Jan. 6 insurrection. After the events of Jan. 6, seven GOP senators voted to impeach the former president, and others — like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — at least flirted with it. While it wasn't a full-throated rebuke from the party on paper, it did feel like many Republicans in Congress were eager to close the door on Trump's chapter of the GOP. That was still the narrative after the party's underwhelming 2022 midterms, when Trump's endorsed candidates seemed to flounder. The party at that time seemed to be facing a choice about its future.

Still, as soon as the 2024 Republican primaries started, it seemed that Republicans resigned themselves to making Trump their standard-bearer once again. Even as a presidential candidate, he held significant sway over the GOP agenda, like when he tanked a bipartisan border deal early this year. And as we heard hints of in his speech tonight, Trump is almost certainly going to take full credit for what looks to be a great election cycle for Republicans. His standing as party leader may translate better to Congress this time around, between his experience in the job and what looks to be a larger Senate GOP majority. After tonight, it feels like it's Trump's GOP, and we're all just living in it.

Milwaukee County reported much of its remaining votes, most of which were absentee votes, and they went heavily enough for Democrats that Sen. Tammy Baldwin has taken a slender lead over Eric Hovde in the Senate race. Looking at the roughly 50,000 votes that we think may still be outstanding, she is probably a marginal favorite to hold on at this point, potentially saving a Senate seat for the Democrats.

And Trump keeps adding to his total: ABC News is projecting that he has won Alaska's three electoral votes. He now has 279 total.

Prognosticators will surely pick through the 2024 campaign in the coming weeks and months, but, as Dan wrote earlier today, incumbent governments around the world have struggled mightily at the ballot box this year. Trump's win showed that the U.S. is no exception to that trend. Rising inflation and lingering malaise from the COVID-19 pandemic have toppled decades-long majorities in all sorts of different countries, ranging from the United Kingdom, to Botswana, to Japan. While Harris had hoped to distance herself from voters' negative views of Biden's presidency, it proved to be too herculean a task.