Live

Election Day 2024: Live results and analysis

We're tracking races for president, Senate, House and more across the country.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: November 5, 2024, 6:00 AM EST

The big day is finally here: Tuesday, Nov. 5, is Election Day across the U.S. Millions of people will head to the polls today — joining more than 80 million who already voted early or by mail — to decide who controls everything from the White House to Congress to state and local governments.

All eyes are, of course, on the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to 538's forecast, both candidates have a roughly equal chance to win.

The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern, and we expect to get initial results shortly thereafter — although it could be days before enough votes are counted to project a winner. Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!

Elon Musk to spend election night with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, sources say

Elon Musk is expected to spend election night with former President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk speaks during a town hall event hosted by America PAC in support of former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Oaks, Pa, Oct. 18, 2024.
Ryan Collerd/AFP via Getty Images

As ABC News has previously reported, Trump is hosting multiple dinners at his private club tonight, including one with his close friends and large donors and another with Mar-a-Lago club members, sources have told ABC News.

Musk is expected to participate in at least one of the events taking place at Mar-a-Lago tonight, according to sources.

Alexandra Samuels Image
3 hours ago

Immigration issues take center stage for Republican voters

Concerns about the state of the economy continue to be top of mind for voters as a whole, but in recent months another policy issue has emerged as an almost-equally high priority for Republicans in particular: immigration.

According to an August/September Pew Research Center poll, the most important issue for Trump voters are the economy (93%), immigration (82%), and violent crime (76%). Harris supporters, by comparison, said they were most concerned with health care (76%), Supreme Court appointments (73%) and the economy (68%).

It makes sense that immigration issues take center stage for Trump supporters specifically. Racist and xenophobic messaging toward immigrants fueled most of Trump's 2016 campaign and he's now promised that, if elected, he would conduct the largest deportation in American history. Republican elected officials have taken actions to amplify voter concerns about immigrants. Several GOP governors, for instance, have spent millions of dollars busing migrants out of their states and into Democrat-led cities, a move many liberals decried as dehumanizing. And during the Republican National Convention this summer, speakers spent much of their time railing against Biden's immigration policies. Perhaps the most succinct summary of where the party is now came from Kari Lake, the Republican Senate nominee from Arizona. The goal of the GOP, she said, must be to "stop the Bidenvasion and build the wall."

This rhetoric aligns with where Republican voters are on the issue of immigration. While a majority of Americans (61%) told pollsters this summer that immigrants from other countries have a largely positive effect on American society, an equal percentage of Republicans instead felt that immigrants had a negative influence.

These findings might be due to the fact that migrant counters at the U.S.-Mexico border hit a record high at the end of last year. And even though they've since decreased, the perception that there's a so-called "invasion" at the Southern border has appeared to hurt Democrats: September polling from YouGov found that voters trust Trump over Harris on handling immigration. It's unclear, of course, just how much this will buoy Trump's campaign, as 538's final forecast essentially shows the presidential candidates in a tie.

Plus, voters also place high importance on providing a path to legal status to undocumented immigrants, a policy more aligned with Harris and Democrats. In a tight race like this, it's possible that whoever can signal to voters that they have a plan to address border security while helping to develop a path to citizenship could be given the chance to implement said plans as the next president.

Jala Everett Image
3 hours ago

What record-breaking litigation could mean for the election

In the 2020 election, close results led to delays, recounts, audits and litigation, which raised questions about electoral processes and contributed to widespread claims of misinformation among the public. According to a U.S Election Assistance Commission report, 43% of voters used mail-in ballots in 2020 to vote. This influx of ballots, coupled with narrow margins in key states, meant Americans had to wait four days until the winner of the election was projected. However on election night and in the months after, Trump declared victory despite losing and attempting to overturn results he claimed were fraudulent.

The 2024 election could be the most heavily-litigated election in U.S. history, with over 165 lawsuits already filed and more expected. On the 538 Politics podcast last week, we tried to understand what is driving this historic level of litigation and the potential misinformation and additional legal challenges we can expect after Election Day. Since 2020, there has been a rise in election certification disputes, reports of harassment targeting local election officials and changes to voting laws across several battleground states.

The race is close, and while we cannot predict what will happen after Election Day, Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center for Justice sat down with us to provide a clearer picture. For more details, check out the podcast.

Nathaniel Rakich Image
1:33 PM EST

Democrats could flip 2 governor's mansions in 2024

They've been overshadowed by the presidential and congressional races, but there are also gubernatorial races in 11 states and two territories being decided today. Most of them will be easy wins for the incumbent party, but there are a couple races that could be competitive.

According to polling, the closest race is in New Hampshire. Popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is retiring, giving Democrats a ripe pick-up opportunity in what has become a light-blue state. According to an average of the last five polls of the race, Republican former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig, the former mayor of Manchester, were tied 48% to 48%.

The other competitive race is a bit of a surprise — Indiana. Republican Sen. Mike Braun started off the cycle as the heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb. But the state GOP nominated a controversial pastor, Micah Beckwith, to be his running mate, and the presence of a strong-ish Libertarian candidate in the race could eat into Republican support. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, could have crossover appeal as a former Republican. Only one pollster, ActiVote, has surveyed this race in October, and its most recent poll found Braun leading McCormick 56% to 44%.