Election Day 2024 live results: Trump projected to win Pa., third swing state

With ABC News' projection that Republican businessman Bernie Moreno will win Ohio's Senate seat, a flip for the GOP, the Democrats have lost any real chance at keeping control of the chamber.

While they started the night holding 51 seats (including the independents who caucus with them), Democrats can hope now to win at most 50 — tying the Republicans in an environment where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the next president (and thus, JD Vance will supply Republicans the tie-breaking vote in the Senate).

But things could get even worse for Democrats. Montana's incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester currently trails Republican opponent Tim Sheehy by 20 points in Montana, though just 16 percent of the vote is in. If the votes there go the way they are going in other red-state Senate seats, Tester doesn't stand a chance. And Republicans currently lead the Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

If you were waiting up to see who would win the Senate ... go to bed.

Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright had managed to hold onto a GOP-leaning seat for three cycles, but his ability to win enough conservative voters to hold the seat appears to have run its course. ABC News has projected that Republican Robert Bresnahan will defeat Cartwright, making it a GOP pickup. The win is part of a stronger GOP showing in northeast Pennsylvania, which is part of the broader Democratic weakness in Pennsylvania that has put Harris in a trailing position.

As election results are tabulated, the results we have so far for Texas's 28th District suggest that Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar might win reelection — but only barely so. With 80% of the vote in, Cuellar only leads his challenger, Republican Jay Furman, by four percentage points.

If this trend continues, it would represent a marked shift to the right for the district, which stretches from San Antonio to the southernmost point of the Texas-Mexico border. In 2022, Cuellar sailed to reelection by 14 points. At the time, his overwhelming win was viewed as somewhat surprising since Cuellar's home and office were raided by the FBI in the week's before the 2022 primary election. Cuellar has long denied any wrongdoing.

It seems like Cuellar, who was first elected in 2004, might be able to hold onto his seat tonight. But he'll have to work for it. And — who knows — maybe winning by a narrow margin tonight will convince Cuellar to fall in line with his party more. Though he's a relatively reliable vote for the House Democratic Caucus, he's distanced himself from his more-liberal colleagues on a number of issues, including abortion. Notably, Cuellar is the only Democrat in the chamber who is anti-abortion. While his colleagues have called for federal protections for abortion, Cuellar has said that abortion-related policies should be left up to the states.

It's unclear how much of Cuellar's current vote margin is due to a rightward shift among Texas's voters who live along the state's southern border. It's also possible that Cuellar is suffering in the polls due to his own personal issues. He was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering.

Right now, the presidential race is looking good for Trump and the Republicans, who have already taken North Carolina and have more votes in all three Blue Wall states. In the Senate, the question mainly remains over the size of their gains.

But the House looks a bit different so far — with the caveat that it's early. But in wave elections, you often see seemingly safe members of the losing party go down to defeat, and so far, the Democrats are only behind in a single seat that was rated by the Cook Political Report as one that Democrats were expected to win (narrowly). That may well change as more ballots are counted — but it is also a quirk of American electoral geography that winning a trifecta means winning in a variety of different types of communities.