Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Tough night for progressives

Georgia Supreme Court elections are usually quiet affairs; from 2012 to 2018, not a single one was even contested. But this year, a clash over abortion has thrust one of these races into the spotlight. While ideological control of the court isn't at stake on Tuesday, a win by Democrats' preferred candidate in this contentious race could tell us something about the electoral landscape in Georgia, and the continuing salience of abortion, ahead of November.

Four of the court's nine justices are up for reelection this year, and three are running unopposed. But the court's newest member, Justice Andrew Pinson, drew a challenge from former Rep. John Barrow. Georgia Supreme Court elections are technically nonpartisan, but in this race, the battle lines are clear: Pinson was first appointed to the court by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, and Barrow is a former Democratic member of Congress who has campaigned on the idea that Georgia's six-week abortion ban is unconstitutional.

Barrow's comments on abortion got him in hot water with the Georgia Judicial Qualifications Commission for taking a position on an issue that he might have to rule on if he is elected to the court. Barrow went to federal court to argue that he had a free speech right to say whatever he wanted in his campaign, but a judge disagreed — and he could face charges, and even be removed from the Georgia Supreme Court should he win on Tuesday, if he continues to speak out on abortion.

Barrow's campaign is undoubtedly hoping that the kerfuffle, and the issue of abortion more generally, will energize liberals to vote for him on Tuesday. But based on the usual metrics, Pinson looks favored to keep his seat. We haven't seen any polls of the race, but Pinson has outraised Barrow $1.5 million to $881,000, and Kemp is spending $500,000 on Pinson's behalf too.

Importantly, a victory for Barrow wouldn't drastically alter the Georgia Supreme Court's partisan makeup; eight of the court's nine justices, including Pinson, were appointed by Republican governors. But Democrats would surely see an upset win from Barrow as more evidence that abortion is a winning issue for them.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

It's 6 p.m. Eastern, which means our first polls of the night — in the half of Kentucky that’s in the Eastern time zone — are now closed. There aren’t many contentious races here, but we’ll keep an eye on early returns as we wait for polls to close in the rest of the state and in Georgia, at 7 p.m. Eastern.

—Tia Yang, 538

According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.

We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.

In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.

In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.

Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.

In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.

Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

If you are reading this live blog, then you are interested in down ballot primary elections, and what I'm about to say probably doesn't apply to you. But there is some evidence that Americans are tuning out the 2024 election. It wouldn't be totally shocking — after all, it's a rerun of the 2020 election and the candidates are two of the least liked in the modern era.

The more interesting question, though, is what that portends for turnout this fall. Will voters tune out, but still turnout? Would either candidate benefit from higher or lower turnout, as they have in record-breaking numbers over the past decade? This was a topic of discussion on the latest episode of the 538 Politics podcast, and if you're curious about it, I'd suggest taking a listen while we wait for results tonight. It's not just an academic question, after all — recent polls of likely voters show a more optimistic picture for Biden than polls of registered voters overall.

—Galen Druke, 538