On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Is a Democratic incumbent in danger in Georgia’s 13th?
I'm also keeping an eye on Rep. David Scott's performance in the 13th District Democratic primary. He hasn't always had the easiest time getting renominated (viz.: his 53 percent primary performance in 2020), and this year he's running in a district that is mostly new to him after court-ordered redistricting. (According to Daily Kos Elections, Scott's current constituents make up just 29 percent of the population of the new 13th District.)
Representative David Scott, a Democrat from Georgia, introduces Sonny Perdue, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture nominee for former President Donald Trump, left, during a Senate Agriculture Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on March 23, 2017.
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images, FILE
Questions about the 78-year-old incumbent's age and health were likely another factor in attracting a larger field of challengers this year. Six Democrats are running against Scott, including Army veteran Marcus Flowers, who raised a whopping $17 million for his doomed 2022 campaign against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in the 14th District. In this campaign, though, he's raised only $180,000 to Scott's $936,000, so Scott is probably going to be OK. Again, the main question on Tuesday is whether he's forced into a runoff.
Who will be the next representative for Georgia’s 3rd District?
After Rep. Drew Ferguson announced his retirement from Georgia’s 3rd District in December, five Republicans threw their hats into the ring for the primary — which will be tantamount to election in a seat former President Donald Trump would have won 64 percent to 34 percent in 2020. The front-runner looks to be Brian Jack, a longtime Trump staffer who helped coordinate the former president’s endorsements in downballot races like this one.
It won’t surprise you to learn, then, that Trump has endorsed Jack in this race, and Jack has raised the most money as well ($925,000 as of May 1). However, the primary also features two former local elected officials who have raised credible sums too: former state Sen. Mike Crane ($559,000) and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan ($398,000). The crowded field also raises the prospect that no candidate will receive a majority of the vote, which would trigger a June 18 runoff.
There aren’t many Republican women running in today’s primaries
There aren't many Republican women to watch today in Kentucky, Georgia, Idaho or Oregon.
In Georgia, eight out of nine Republican House incumbents are running for reelection. The only open seat (due to retirement) is in the solidly Republican 3rd District, and there are no women among the five hopefuls, so the GOP won't be adding any more women to their state's congressional delegation. The only Republican woman in the delegation is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who represents the 14th District and is running unopposed in her party primary. Georgia also happens to be one of 18 states that have never had a female governor.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves a meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson, whom she has vowed to remove from his leadership post, at the Capitol, May 7, 2024.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
In Idaho, both House incumbents (who are Republican men) are running for reelection, and their only challengers are men. Like Georgia, Idaho is one of the 18 states that has never had a female governor (they've never had a female senator, either). Similarly in Kentucky, the five Republican incumbents in the House are running for reelection either unopposed or without serious primary competition; those incumbents and their challengers are all men.
In Oregon, there are two Republican primaries, in the 4th and 6th Districts, where voters will choose who faces off against two Democratic incumbent women. No Republican women are running in the 6th District race to challenge Rep. Andrea Salinas, who won her general election in 2022 by less than 3 points. But in the 4th District, two women are running to face Rep. Val Hoyle, who won her seat by 7 points in 2022: Air Force veteran and attorney, Monique DeSpain, and former Keizer city councilmember, Amy Ryan Courser. DeSpain has vastly outraised Courser and is endorsed by Maggie's List, a group working to elect more Republican women to Congress.
One of today’s biggest elections is for Georgia Supreme Court
Georgia Supreme Court elections are usually quiet affairs; from 2012 to 2018, not a single one was even contested. But this year, a clash over abortion has thrust one of these races into the spotlight. While ideological control of the court isn't at stake on Tuesday, a win by Democrats' preferred candidate in this contentious race could tell us something about the electoral landscape in Georgia, and the continuing salience of abortion, ahead of November.
Rep. John Barrow shakes hands at the Law Enforcement Cookout at Wayne Dasher's pond house in Glennville, Ga., April 17, 2014.
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Imag
Four of the court's nine justices are up for reelection this year, and three are running unopposed. But the court's newest member, Justice Andrew Pinson, drew a challenge from former Rep. John Barrow. Georgia Supreme Court elections are technically nonpartisan, but in this race, the battle lines are clear: Pinson was first appointed to the court by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, and Barrow is a former Democratic member of Congress who has campaigned on the idea that Georgia's six-week abortion ban is unconstitutional.
Barrow's comments on abortion got him in hot water with the Georgia Judicial Qualifications Commission for taking a position on an issue that he might have to rule on if he is elected to the court. Barrow went to federal court to argue that he had a free speech right to say whatever he wanted in his campaign, but a judge disagreed — and he could face charges, and even be removed from the Georgia Supreme Court should he win on Tuesday, if he continues to speak out on abortion.
Barrow's campaign is undoubtedly hoping that the kerfuffle, and the issue of abortion more generally, will energize liberals to vote for him on Tuesday. But based on the usual metrics, Pinson looks favored to keep his seat. We haven't seen any polls of the race, but Pinson has outraised Barrow $1.5 million to $881,000, and Kemp is spending $500,000 on Pinson's behalf too.
Importantly, a victory for Barrow wouldn't drastically alter the Georgia Supreme Court's partisan makeup; eight of the court's nine justices, including Pinson, were appointed by Republican governors. But Democrats would surely see an upset win from Barrow as more evidence that abortion is a winning issue for them.
