Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary

538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.

November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.

Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


Polls have now closed in California

Polls are now closed in the Golden State, where a special election is taking place to fill the seat of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the remainder of his term. State Assemblymember Vince Fong led in the regular top-two primary two weeks ago, and is favored to ultimately win this race as well. But results in California usually take quite a while to fully come in since a large proportion of voters vote by mail. And it might not end with today's contest either: If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote today, the top two vote-getters will advance to a special general election in May.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Republicans put their faith in another rich guy

Moreno’s nomination in Ohio continues a trend of Republicans entrusting their Senate hopes to a coterie of very wealthy men (and one woman, Nella Domenici in New Mexico). In almost every single competitive Senate race, the likely Republican nominee is a politically inexperienced but very wealthy man, each of whom is self-funding to some degree. While Moreno isn’t as wealthy as Tim Sheehy in Montana, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin or Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, he certainly fits the mold. And if Republicans come up short in their efforts to flip the chamber this fall, I think there will be a lot of focus on how the party eschewed candidates with experience winning races in favor of neophytes, especially when Democrats have such strong incumbents.

Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Checking in on anti-abortion Republican candidates

Of the 29 anti-abortion Republican candidates we're tracking, 15 have been projected to win per ABC News, including 6 incumbents. Twelve challengers are projected to lose their races (though, of course, many were running in the same contests, like the crowded Ohio 2nd District race). In the only race on this list that's not yet projected, Illinois's 12th District, incumbent Mike Bost is leading Darren Bailey — both are on the list. With abortion shaping up to be an important issue in the fall, these candidates have all made pro-life statements without saying abortion should be left to the states. That could signal their willingness to support a national abortion ban, as some Republican and national anti-abortion groups are advocating for.

—Monica Potts, 538



Rulli projected to win

In Ohio’s 6th District, Michael Rulli is projected to defeat Reggie Stoltzfus in the Republican primary, according to ABC News. Rulli currently leads by about 9 percentage points in the regularly scheduled primary and 8 points in the special election primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, with over 80 percent of the expected vote reporting in each. Because the district is solidly Republican, Rulli will likely be the next member of Congress. A special election in a few months will send him to D.C., where he’ll fill out the remainder of Johnson’s term.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Ohio 6’s special election turns negative

The special election to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Ohio’s 6th District has been a relatively low-key affair since the seven-term Republican left office in January. State Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus are both running in the regularly scheduled primary and the special election primary for the GOP nomination tonight (so is chiropractor Rick Tsai, who has not raised much money and isn’t seen as a contender); the winner will be a shoo-in for both the June 11 special general election and November general election in this safe red district.

Both candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump, and spent the first month of the race airing positive ads. But Rulli, who is backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, once had a more moderate reputation in the state Senate when he represented a competitive Youngstown-area seat, while Stoltzfus, who has backing from the socially conservative Family Research Council and Gen. Mike Flynn, has consistently been one of the most conservative members of the state House and has pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.

In the closing weeks, the race has turned on LGBTQ issues, with Stoltzfus airing ads accusing Rulli of “sponsoring legislation to allow boys in girls’ bathrooms” — a reference to Rulli’s cosponsorship of an LGBTQ anti-discrimination bill (he was one of the only Republicans to back the bill). Rather than lean into his record, Rulli’s allies at Defending Main Street (a wing of the Republican Main Street Partnership) are working to fashion the candidate, who once described himself as “really pro-gay rights” into a conservative outsider who “will stop the Left’s war on children” with respect to transgender issues.

Stoltzfus ($492,000) and Rulli ($479,000) have spent around the same amount of money on ads through March 18, per AdImpact data, with the pro-Rulli Defending Main Street PAC chipping in another $80,000.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections