Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 15, 2024, 5:15 PM EST

The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Meredith Conroy Image
Jan 15, 2024, 11:47 PM EST

Haley's speech links Trump to Biden

In her speech tonight, Haley linked Biden to Trump, reminding us that both are old (she said both are about 80 years old), and that most Americans don't want another Trump-Biden match up. But Republicans are much less likely than Democrats to admit their candidate is too old, so the audience within her party for that message is small.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks to the crowd at a caucus night party in West Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 15, 2024.
Marco Bello/Reuters
Jan 15, 2024, 11:45 PM EST

Haley may win a county after all

Johnson County, one of the most diverse, well-educated counties in Iowa, now shows Nikki Haley in the lead … by 1 vote, according to ABC News.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Monica Potts Image
Jan 15, 2024, 11:36 PM EST

Haley is making history for Republican women

Our friends over at The 19th have pointed out that Haley is likely to become the first woman to win more than one delegate in the Republican primary. If she pulls off an upset in New Hampshire later this month, she'll become the first woman to win a Republican primary contest. In that same state, then-former Sen. Hillary Clinton was the first woman to ever win a major party primary contest in 2008, when she captured a surprise victory after coming in third in Iowa, which Obama won.

Republican presidential hopeful and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event at the Olympic Theatre in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Jan. 11, 2024.
Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images

—Monica Potts, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
Jan 15, 2024, 11:35 PM EST

DeSantis gives a victory speech after losing Iowa

DeSantis just finished his caucus-night speech, and it sounded a lot like a victory speech. He told a raucous crowd that, despite everyone underestimating their campaign, they punched their ticket out of Iowa. Of course, DeSantis did not win the state, and his 30-point deficit to Trump raises serious questions about the future viability of his campaign. There was a lot of positive spin up on that stage.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538