Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Donald Trump came into this race an overwhelming favorite for the GOP nomination, and he leaves it the same way. DeSantis and Haley remain in a close race for second place, but so far behind Trump that it doesn’t seem like either has a realistic path to claiming the nomination. The polls were extremely accurate, especially by Iowa standards, and if that holds up in future primary elections, barring any unforeseen circumstances we’re looking at a Trump-Biden rematch in November.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Trump will win in nearly every county, the race was called super early, and the issues that brought Iowans out tonight were squarely in his wheelhouse, including the unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 race was stolen. This doesn't suggest there's a lot of room to mount a challenge, but DeSantis and Haley are both going to keep trying! But New Hampshire is a different animal, and that race is soon enough that narratives about Trump's dominance could crack a little. We'll be here for that one, too!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

With results projected and speeches given, we're closing in on the end. What are everyone's closing thoughts and takeaways for the evening?

—Tia Yang, 538

Earlier tonight, Ramaswamy dropped out of the race following his fourth place Iowa finish and endorsed Trump. We've already noted how Ramaswamy was all-in in Iowa, traveling through the entire state twice. Ramaswamy had a brief moment in the sun earlier in the race, but that investment didn't really pay off. He urged his supporters to support Trump, but polls show he's already their number two choice. That could make a difference in New Hampshire, where Haley has been closing in on Trump's lead.

—Monica Potts, 538