Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Trump will win in nearly every county, the race was called super early, and the issues that brought Iowans out tonight were squarely in his wheelhouse, including the unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 race was stolen. This doesn't suggest there's a lot of room to mount a challenge, but DeSantis and Haley are both going to keep trying! But New Hampshire is a different animal, and that race is soon enough that narratives about Trump's dominance could crack a little. We'll be here for that one, too!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

With results projected and speeches given, we're closing in on the end. What are everyone's closing thoughts and takeaways for the evening?

—Tia Yang, 538

Earlier tonight, Ramaswamy dropped out of the race following his fourth place Iowa finish and endorsed Trump. We've already noted how Ramaswamy was all-in in Iowa, traveling through the entire state twice. Ramaswamy had a brief moment in the sun earlier in the race, but that investment didn't really pay off. He urged his supporters to support Trump, but polls show he's already their number two choice. That could make a difference in New Hampshire, where Haley has been closing in on Trump's lead.

—Monica Potts, 538

Around 109,000 votes have been counted in Iowa tonight, and ABC News's estimated expected vote is roughly 115,000. Should that be about the final total vote tally, that'll mean roughly 5 percent of the voting-eligible population participated in the Republican caucuses. That represents a dramatic drop from 2016, when 8 percent took part in the Republican caucuses (7.5 percent participated in both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic caucuses). Even in 2012, 5.4 percent of the VEP voted in the GOP contest in Iowa, while Democrats set a record in 2008 when about 11 percent of the potential electorate in Iowa took part.

The subzero temperatures in Iowa likely played a part in why turnout fell, but the lack of a competitive race surely also diminished interest. The last time either party fell below 5 percent of the VEP in caucus turnout was in 2000, when both parties fell short. Democrats had an uncompetitive race between Al Gore and Bill Bradley (Gore won by 26 points) while Republicans had a closer contest, but one that George W. Bush still won by 10.5 points.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538