Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

The contest in Iowa played out as I expected it would, but of course the primary is not quite over. Anything could still happen, especially this year. But it does look like Trump will coast to the nomination despite all of the unprecedented baggage he brings with him. He's been too heavily a favorite among Republican voters, many of whom believe he actually won the 2020 election and should be president now. While it's true that most Americans seem blah about a 2016 rematch, it's also true that both parties' voters aren't lining up behind alternative candidates.

Of course, we'll all reconvene in about a week to see what happens in New Hampshire.

—Monica Potts, 538

Other than his one-vote loss in Johnson County, it's hard to find much that went wrong for Trump tonight. He won a majority of the vote and carried pretty much every demographic category (especially ones that make up the bedrock of the GOP primary electorate). The most Trump-like candidate in the race, who was still siphoning off a chunk of MAGA votes, dropped out and endorsed him. His two main challengers effectively tied, denying either of them the momentum or comeback narrative they desperately sought in Iowa. And you have to imagine the deep-pocketed donors who flooded Iowa with tens of millions of dollars of pro-Haley and pro-DeSantis advertising have to be wondering about their return on investment.

The New Hampshire primary is in eight days and might well be the toughest contest for Trump of the entire primary process, so it's good for him he can approach it with a full head of steam. The window of opportunity for any non-Trump candidate to alter the course of this race, such that it was ever open, is rapidly closing.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Donald Trump came into this race an overwhelming favorite for the GOP nomination, and he leaves it the same way. DeSantis and Haley remain in a close race for second place, but so far behind Trump that it doesn’t seem like either has a realistic path to claiming the nomination. The polls were extremely accurate, especially by Iowa standards, and if that holds up in future primary elections, barring any unforeseen circumstances we’re looking at a Trump-Biden rematch in November.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Trump will win in nearly every county, the race was called super early, and the issues that brought Iowans out tonight were squarely in his wheelhouse, including the unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 race was stolen. This doesn't suggest there's a lot of room to mount a challenge, but DeSantis and Haley are both going to keep trying! But New Hampshire is a different animal, and that race is soon enough that narratives about Trump's dominance could crack a little. We'll be here for that one, too!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor