Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

Both parties have contested primaries in the swingy 8th District located around Flint that is open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee. In the GOP race, former Trump administration official Paul Junge is running again after losing to Kildee in 2022 and to Slotkin in 2020, while retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves has pointed to those defeats as evidence that Junge would be a weaker general election choice. However, Draves appears to have her work cut out for her in the primary: Junge has outraised her $2.1 million to $546,000 (Junge has self-funded $2 million to Draves's $259,000), money he's used to attack Draves as "woke." Although the GOP-aligned Winning for Women Action Fund has spent $385,000 to aid Draves, it may not be enough. Polls conducted on behalf of Junge's campaign previously found him surpassing 50 percent support — and that was before Trump endorsed Junge on July 26.

Meanwhile, Democrats have a three-way primary for this seat. The favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has raised $1.7 million and has endorsements from Emily's List and the United Auto Workers labor union, as well as from Kildee and other Democratic officeholders. She's also the preferred choice of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. McDonald Rivet's main opponent is former Army Ranger Matt Collier, who served as Flint's mayor back in the early 1990s. Collier has brought in $906,000 (almost half self-funded) and has backing from veterans groups.

Two June surveys by Public Policy Polling on behalf of Collier's allies found him within striking distance of McDonald Rivet. But Kildee publicly expressed irritation with Collier over a campaign ad that used an image of Kildee's uncle, the late Democratic Rep. Dale Kildee, because while Collier once worked for the elder Kildee in the 1980s, he later considered challenging him in the 1990s as a Republican. Also running is State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, who switched over from the Senate race and has raised $552,000 for her bid.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

If you were paying attention to the 2022 midterms, you may remember the major upset that was Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's win in Washington's 3rd District, north of Portland, Oregon. The 538 forecast back then showed Gluesenkamp Perez winning just 2 in 100 times over Republican Joe Kent in this red-leaning district. Now, it looks like we're poised for a rematch as Kent, alongside one other Republican and an independent, is running in the primary, hoping for the chance to unseat the freshman congresswoman in November.

Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are most likely to make the ballot in November — they easily lead in fundraising and are neck-and-neck in polls. That would set up what looks to be a competitive race this fall. Kent, a former Green Beret and a 2020 election denier (who did concede his own 2022 loss following a recount), once again has the backing of Trump. And while Gluesenkamp Perez has proven to be a moderate Democrat in office (she is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition), the results of this primary might give us a clue about whether she can once again overcome her district's conservative lean come November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

In the competitive but blue-leaning 3rd District centered on Grand Rapids, two Republicans are battling to face Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten. The money race has been close, as businessman Michael Markey has raised $793,000 to attorney Paul Hudson's $630,000 (both have self-funded to a sizable extent). But Hudson may have the upper hand thanks to West Michigan for Change, an outside group funded by his brother that has spent $698,000 supporting Hudson or attacking Markey.

The race has become fairly ugly, as WMFC has argued that Markey supported the Green New Deal, a position associated with progressives, while Markey has sought to link Hudson to the Chinese Communist Party because Hudson once represented a Chinese auto parts supplier. We've seen no polls of this race, so it's hard to know who will advance to go up against Scholten, who looks likely to win renomination in her own primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The GOP primary in Kansas's 3rd District has a clear frontrunner in Prasanth Reddy, a cancer physician, medical executive and Air Force reservist who's racked up endorsements (and funding) from the national party and prominent GOP leaders. Reddy has played up his immigrant background while emphasizing issues of border security and said he's running to counter "extremist" Democrats in Congress. He's pulled in over $1.3 million, more than eight times the funding as his only competitor in the primary, businesswoman Karen Crnkovich. But even if Reddy runs away with it, Tuesday's race is worth watching as a prequel to what could be a competitive contest this fall, when the winner will face off against Rep. Sharice Davids, the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation and one of the GOP's top House targets this year.

—Tia Yang, 538