Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

Democrats have a contested primary in the 10th District, a swingy seat held by Republican Rep. John James that covers much of Macomb County. In 2022, James defeated former Macomb County judge Carl Marlinga by only 0.5 points, and Marlinga is back for another go. Considering Marlinga has been around Macomb County politics and law for decades, the 77-year old may be favored in the Democratic primary. However, he's only raised $627,000, putting him just ahead of financial adviser Diane Young ($526,000) and gun safety activist Emily Busch ($481,000).

Most strikingly, Busch has run an ad in which she disclosed having had an abortion and claimed that Marlinga once tried to prevent a 12-year-old rape victim from receiving one. Marlinga has defended his record on abortion, saying that he only delayed action in that court case so the victim could first receive a psychological evaluation. Notably, attempts to portray Marlinga as insufficiently favorable toward abortion rights didn't work in the 2022 Democratic primary, which he won comfortably. State Board of Education Co-Vice President Tiffany Tilley is also in the race, although she's only raised $63,000.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

According to the Center for American Women in Politics, just 25 percent of Senators and 29 percent of House members are women. As usual, we're keeping track of the women on the ballot today who are looking to add to those numbers.

Both in Congress and on tonight's ballots, most of those women are Democrats:

Two key races where Democratic women are favored tonight are in Michigan. Democrats have an open primary in the state's purple 8th District, where incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee announced he would not seek reelection. EMILYs List is backing state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet; the seat is rated as a toss-up in November by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Michigan's Senate race is also expected to be close, after Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced she would not seek reelection for the seat she's held since 2001. EMILYs List is also getting involved here, backing Rep. Elissa Slotkin (who currently represents the 7th District) in the primary, hoping to keep that seat not only blue, but represented by a woman.

A slate of women are also running in GOP primaries tonight, though fewer are favored to win:

GOP women's groups have backed their own candidate for Kildee's open 8th District seat. GOP women's groups VIEW PAC and Winning for Women are supporting Mary Draves, a former executive at Dow Chemical; but she's got an uphill battle in her primary, because Trump has endorsed Paul Junge, who lost to Kildee in 2022.

In Kansas, there could be a competitive Republican primary in the 3rd District, in a race to face off against the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Sharice Davids. VIEW PAC is backing small business owner Karen Crnkovich. However, the NRCC and party brass have lined up behind physician Prasanth Reddy.

It's a similar story in Washington's 3rd District, where Republicans are hoping to challenge Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who eked out a win in 2022 against former Green Beret Joe Kent. (That year, Kent rode Trump's endorsement in the primary to finish ahead of then-incumbent Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who had voted to impeach Trump). Kent is back, again with Trump's endorsement, though GOP women's groups VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, and Winning for Women are backing Leslie Lewallen, a former King County prosecutor.

Washington's 5th District is currently represented by a Republican woman, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who is not seeking reelection. VIEW PAC and Maggie's List are backing state Rep. Jaquelin Maycumber in the hopes of keeping the seat in the hands of a GOP woman. But in a crowded primary for the open seat, she faces tough competition, particularly from Spokane County Treasurer and former state Sen. Michael Baumgartner.

I'll be watching these races (and more) today.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Both parties have contested primaries in the swingy 8th District located around Flint that is open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee. In the GOP race, former Trump administration official Paul Junge is running again after losing to Kildee in 2022 and to Slotkin in 2020, while retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves has pointed to those defeats as evidence that Junge would be a weaker general election choice. However, Draves appears to have her work cut out for her in the primary: Junge has outraised her $2.1 million to $546,000 (Junge has self-funded $2 million to Draves's $259,000), money he's used to attack Draves as "woke." Although the GOP-aligned Winning for Women Action Fund has spent $385,000 to aid Draves, it may not be enough. Polls conducted on behalf of Junge's campaign previously found him surpassing 50 percent support — and that was before Trump endorsed Junge on July 26.

Meanwhile, Democrats have a three-way primary for this seat. The favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has raised $1.7 million and has endorsements from Emily's List and the United Auto Workers labor union, as well as from Kildee and other Democratic officeholders. She's also the preferred choice of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. McDonald Rivet's main opponent is former Army Ranger Matt Collier, who served as Flint's mayor back in the early 1990s. Collier has brought in $906,000 (almost half self-funded) and has backing from veterans groups.

Two June surveys by Public Policy Polling on behalf of Collier's allies found him within striking distance of McDonald Rivet. But Kildee publicly expressed irritation with Collier over a campaign ad that used an image of Kildee's uncle, the late Democratic Rep. Dale Kildee, because while Collier once worked for the elder Kildee in the 1980s, he later considered challenging him in the 1990s as a Republican. Also running is State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, who switched over from the Senate race and has raised $552,000 for her bid.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

If you were paying attention to the 2022 midterms, you may remember the major upset that was Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's win in Washington's 3rd District, north of Portland, Oregon. The 538 forecast back then showed Gluesenkamp Perez winning just 2 in 100 times over Republican Joe Kent in this red-leaning district. Now, it looks like we're poised for a rematch as Kent, alongside one other Republican and an independent, is running in the primary, hoping for the chance to unseat the freshman congresswoman in November.

Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are most likely to make the ballot in November — they easily lead in fundraising and are neck-and-neck in polls. That would set up what looks to be a competitive race this fall. Kent, a former Green Beret and a 2020 election denier (who did concede his own 2022 loss following a recount), once again has the backing of Trump. And while Gluesenkamp Perez has proven to be a moderate Democrat in office (she is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition), the results of this primary might give us a clue about whether she can once again overcome her district's conservative lean come November.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538