Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: August 6, 2024, 6:01 PM EDT

Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.

The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.

Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Aug 07, 2024, 12:06 AM EDT

Answer: I think Newhouse would be favored, at least slightly?

Nathaniel, I’d rather be Newhouse in that situation. The district is not so Republican — Biden won 40 percent of the vote there in 2020, and Newhouse regularly overperforms other Republicans in the district, so he’s clearly winning over some crossover support. If he can compile a Murkowski-esque coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans, he can make it work. He’d probably need Democrats to show up for him, but as long as he can hold down a decent slug of Republicans it could work.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Aug 07, 2024, 12:05 AM EDT

Question: Who would win a Sessler-versus-Newhouse general election?

As Geoffrey reported earlier, it looks like Washington’s 4th District could easily go to a general election between a pro-Trump and an anti-Trump Republican. Who do you guys think would be favored in such a matchup?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Aug 06, 2024, 11:54 PM EDT

Baumgartner advances in Washington's 5th District

In Washington's 5th District, the AP projects Republican Michael Baumgartner will advance from the primary to the general election. With 56 percent of the expected vote counted, Democrat Carmela Conroy (no relation) is in second with 20 percent of the vote, while Republican Jaquelin Maycumber has 12 percent. We're still waiting on the second candidate to advance in this top-two primary.

This was an open primary, after the incumbent, a Republican woman, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, announced she would not seeking reelection. A couple key GOP women's groups had thrown their endorsement to state Rep. Jaquelin Maycumber in the hopes of keeping the seat in the hands of a Republican woman.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Aug 06, 2024, 11:51 PM EDT

Thanedar may be in trouble in Michigan's 13th District

As we've discussed tonight, Wayne County in Michigan has been pretty slow to report results. However, based on the city of Detroit's running vote tally, Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar leads Detroit City Council member Mary Waters only 45.5 percent to 44.9 percent with around 29,000 votes reporting.

Now, what percentage of the expected vote is that? Unclear, but it'd be slightly more than one-third of the 2022 Democratic primary vote in this district. The AP has reported around only 2,000 votes so far, so we don't have that to rely on just yet.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538