Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: August 6, 2024, 6:01 PM EDT

Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.

The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.

Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Aug 07, 2024, 12:07 AM EDT

Answer: Newhouse might not get as much help from Democrats as you'd think

The challenge for Newhouse, though, is that studies suggest that many Democrats might just not cast a ballot in this race if presented with two Republican choices in November. A 2020 study found that "orphaned" voters in a top-two primary state — that is, those who identified or leaned toward a party that didn't have a candidate in the general election — were nearly 20 percent more likely to not cast a vote at all compared to those who did have a candidate from their party. So while I think Newhouse could win over some Democrats against a Trump-backed contender, he also could struggle because he couldn't count on them not abstaining. Additionally, running a more openly anti-Trump campaign to win them over would probably redound to Sessler's benefit.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Aug 07, 2024, 12:07 AM EDT

Answer: Democrats have to vote for somebody

I agree with Jacob — In a Newhouse vs. pro-Trump Republican matchup, I think I'd rather be Newhouse. In 2020 and 2022, his Democratic opponent won over 30 percent of the vote in this solidly red seat. If no Democrat appears on the ballot, I'd expect the Democrats in the district to prefer a candidate that stood up to Trump and voted for his impeachment over one that got his endorsement. So even if a majority of Republican voters abandon Newhouse, he could hope that Democratic voters might be enough to put him over the edge.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Aug 07, 2024, 12:06 AM EDT

Answer: I think Newhouse would be favored, at least slightly?

Nathaniel, I’d rather be Newhouse in that situation. The district is not so Republican — Biden won 40 percent of the vote there in 2020, and Newhouse regularly overperforms other Republicans in the district, so he’s clearly winning over some crossover support. If he can compile a Murkowski-esque coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans, he can make it work. He’d probably need Democrats to show up for him, but as long as he can hold down a decent slug of Republicans it could work.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Aug 07, 2024, 12:05 AM EDT

Question: Who would win a Sessler-versus-Newhouse general election?

As Geoffrey reported earlier, it looks like Washington’s 4th District could easily go to a general election between a pro-Trump and an anti-Trump Republican. Who do you guys think would be favored in such a matchup?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538