Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

In Washington's comfortably blue 6th District, the AP reports that about 60 percent of the expected vote has reported. And currently, Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall leads with 33 percent, followed by Republican state Sen. Drew McEwen with 31 percent and Democratic Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz with 26 percent. Franz had the most notoriety entering this race as a statewide official, but Randall received a huge amount of outside backing — $2.4 million to Franz's $55,000, according to OpenSecrets — which may be making a big difference for her. The question now is, might Franz catch McEwen and force an all-Democratic general election?

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The challenge for Newhouse, though, is that studies suggest that many Democrats might just not cast a ballot in this race if presented with two Republican choices in November. A 2020 study found that "orphaned" voters in a top-two primary state — that is, those who identified or leaned toward a party that didn't have a candidate in the general election — were nearly 20 percent more likely to not cast a vote at all compared to those who did have a candidate from their party. So while I think Newhouse could win over some Democrats against a Trump-backed contender, he also could struggle because he couldn't count on them not abstaining. Additionally, running a more openly anti-Trump campaign to win them over would probably redound to Sessler's benefit.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I agree with Jacob — In a Newhouse vs. pro-Trump Republican matchup, I think I'd rather be Newhouse. In 2020 and 2022, his Democratic opponent won over 30 percent of the vote in this solidly red seat. If no Democrat appears on the ballot, I'd expect the Democrats in the district to prefer a candidate that stood up to Trump and voted for his impeachment over one that got his endorsement. So even if a majority of Republican voters abandon Newhouse, he could hope that Democratic voters might be enough to put him over the edge.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Nathaniel, I’d rather be Newhouse in that situation. The district is not so Republican — Biden won 40 percent of the vote there in 2020, and Newhouse regularly overperforms other Republicans in the district, so he’s clearly winning over some crossover support. If he can compile a Murkowski-esque coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans, he can make it work. He’d probably need Democrats to show up for him, but as long as he can hold down a decent slug of Republicans it could work.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections