Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: August 7, 2024, 12:16 AM EDT

Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.

The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.

Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
10 hours and 4 minutes ago

Marlinga secures a rematch in Michigan's 10th

The AP has projected that Carl Marlinga will once again be the Democratic nominee in Michigan's 10th District. The 2022 nominee won 48 percent of the vote tonight in the Democratic primary, while his closest competitor, Diane Young, got only 26 percent, with 37 percent of the expected vote reporting. Marlinga will face Republican Rep. John James in November in a district that Trump carried in 2020 by only 1 point.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Carl Marlinga candidate for the US Representative in Michigan's newly formed 10th District, poses before a "Get Out the Vote Rally" at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, Oct. 29, 2022.
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

10 hours and 6 minutes ago

Hudson projected to win GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd District

The AP has projected that attorney Paul Hudson will defeat financial adviser Michael Markey in the Republican primary in Michigan's 3rd District. With 56 percent of the expected vote reporting, Hudson leads about 55 percent to 45 percent, and critically he holds a 16-point lead in Kent County (home to Grand Rapids), where most of the race's remaining votes will be tallied. That's left Markey with no potentially favorable turf to hope for a comeback. This sets Hudson up to face Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten in November in what could be a competitive tilt, although Scholten will start as a favorite in the blue-leaning seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

10 hours and 9 minutes ago

Will Washington's 6th District get a bipartisan matchup or two Democrats in November?

In Washington's comfortably blue 6th District, the AP reports that about 60 percent of the expected vote has reported. And currently, Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall leads with 33 percent, followed by Republican state Sen. Drew McEwen with 31 percent and Democratic Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz with 26 percent. Franz had the most notoriety entering this race as a statewide official, but Randall received a huge amount of outside backing — $2.4 million to Franz's $55,000, according to OpenSecrets — which may be making a big difference for her. The question now is, might Franz catch McEwen and force an all-Democratic general election?

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

10 hours and 11 minutes ago

Answer: Newhouse might not get as much help from Democrats as you'd think

The challenge for Newhouse, though, is that studies suggest that many Democrats might just not cast a ballot in this race if presented with two Republican choices in November. A 2020 study found that "orphaned" voters in a top-two primary state — that is, those who identified or leaned toward a party that didn't have a candidate in the general election — were nearly 20 percent more likely to not cast a vote at all compared to those who did have a candidate from their party. So while I think Newhouse could win over some Democrats against a Trump-backed contender, he also could struggle because he couldn't count on them not abstaining. Additionally, running a more openly anti-Trump campaign to win them over would probably redound to Sessler's benefit.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538