The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
The AP has projected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who was the favorite in this race, will defeat former Army Ranger Matt Collier and state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
In a few notable races tonight, GOP women's groups put their support behind qualified women in open primaries, but their candidates failed to advance. Leslie Lewallen, a former King County prosecutor, in Washington's 3rd, Mary Draves, a former executive at Dow Chemical, in Michigan's 8th, and Karen Crnkovich, a small business owner, in Kansas's 3rd, were all defeated by men with backing from either Trump or the NRCC. Without more coordination, gender representation of the GOP will continue to skew heavily male, unlike Democrats, who have been adding women to their caucus steadily since 2018.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
My final thoughts for the night are about something we haven't been covering in today's blog: Harris's selection of Minnesota Gov. Walz for her vice-presidential candidate, whom she introduced today at an energetic and crowded rally in Philadelphia. I bring it up because we've been covering a lot of primary nights this year, but as we're heading into the last few months of the campaign, it's a totally different race than what we expected it would be at the top of the ticket.
I have no idea how that's going to affect some of these downballot races, but the general election will provide a different context for every candidate than the one they expected earlier in the year. That's something I'm thinking about that as we go forward and shift toward the general election.
—Monica Potts, 538
Trump endorsed 25 Republican candidates in 22 races today, and as things stand, the only contenders who lost or look to be in trouble are in the two races where he endorsed more than one candidate: Missouri's gubernatorial primary and the top-two race in Washington's 4th District.
In Missouri, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe won the Republican primary for governor with close to 40 percent of the vote, according to the AP, defeating two other candidates who also received Trump's blessing. In Washington, we don't have a projection in the 4th District yet, but former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler leads with 30 percent over the 25 percent of Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 and is persona non grata to the former president. Veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley, whom Trump also endorsed, is in third with about 20 percent. While the presidential race looks to be on a knife's edge, the Republican Party continues to become more Trump's party every day.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
