New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Elliott, I think that the window for her to drop out after losing tonight probably closes pretty soon. It's a long month between now and South Carolina, but Haley seems set on making it to her home state. If a loss tonight wasn't enough to push her out, I'm not sure what will change over the next few weeks to alter that calculus. She's got a big ad buy coming down the pike in South Carolina (which, of course, could be canceled) and talks up the state all the time.

To me, the more fun question is whether or not Haley seriously contests the actual next contest after New Hampshire, the US Virgin Islands caucus on February 8. The USVI had been on my radar because the GOP there will conduct its caucus using ranked-choice voting, which I believe is unique among Republican contests, but in a two-person race, ranked-choice is a little less interesting.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Haley has a good deal of cash on hand, and I can imagine a world in which she raises some more if she loses by less than double-digits tonight — which is a big if. Even if the anti-Trump Republican contingent is pretty small, this is their best chance at consolidating.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

Whether Haley loses by 10 or 13 points tonight, I think we can all agree Trump is still on track to win — almost certainly, if we're being probabilistic. But as we just saw, that does not mean Haley will quit! So, what does the team think about how long she will hold on? Does she run all the way through South Carolina, where Trump is currently approaching a 40-point lead?

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.

Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538