New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Look, even if Haley had pulled off an upset win in New Hampshire, it was going to be very hard for her to win the nomination because New Hampshire is basically tailor-made for her demographically. But the fact that Trump still won there, despite that fact, just underscores the fact that he has an iron grip on the GOP right now. For now, Haley seems content to keep soldiering on and drawing out this nomination contest, but Ramaswamy was right when he spoke at Trump’s victory rally: It’s time for the rest of us to start looking toward the general election.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As of now, Haley is looking like she'll lose to Trump by about 10 points in New Hampshire. If she could get under double digits she'd probably be in a stronger position, but a Trump nomination still seems inevitable. And tonight in New Hampshire he attempted some symbolic consolidation, with Scott and Ramaswamy joining him on the state. Still, I think Haley will stay in for as long as she can fund it. She seems emboldened, and maybe she can shake some Trump supporters loose in her home state to keep it going.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Big picture, this was a good night for Trump, who gets another win under his belt, avoids the embarrassment of losing an early state, and gets to compete in much more favorable territory from now on. It's obvious he's going to be the Republican nominee for president. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that just under half of Republican primary voters in the first two states voted for someone other than Trump, even as his inevitability has become apparent. I do think that should be a cause for some concern among Republicans moving forward, given that the general election will likely be brutally close and even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could prove fatal. The longer Haley stays in, the more data we'll get on just how many GOP voters there are who are not entirely on board with Trump, especially as she steps up her direct attacks on him. There's been so much conversation about Biden's struggles within the Democratic coalition — which are real and worthy of attention — but Trump may face similar challenges as the nominee as well.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

I know we're not finished with New Hampshire yet — and, per Haley's speech tonight, the primary is yet to go on! — but I believe it's never too early for some general election game theory ... So here it is:

A key question for November will be how many of the moderate Republicans who voted for Haley tonight end up voting for Trump. On the one hand, ultimately, Haley voters are still Republicans. The vast majority of them oppose Biden and the Democratic party, so they will probably vote for Trump in the end. But on the other hand, and this is the million dollar question, exactly how Republican are they really? If, say, 5 percent of Haley's supporters defect and vote for Biden or a third party, that could matter in a close election.

Ultimately Trump's poor performance with moderate and college-educated Republicans in the primary so far does not spell doom for him. But it may still highlight one of his key weaknesses for the general.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538