Control of the Pennsylvania House is up for grabs … again
The U.S. House of Representatives isn’t the only legislative body with close margins. For the past year, Democrats have held a one-seat (at times no-seat) majority in the Pennsylvania state House — their first in over 10 years. Their tumultuous first year in power saw six special elections held on three separate dates. And today, for the fourth time in just over a year, another state legislative special election will determine the balance of power in the commonwealth’s lower chamber.
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The latest race pits Democratic attorney and school board member Jim Prokopiak against Republican restaurant server and former health care aide Candace Cabanas, to fill a seat vacated in December by nine-term Democratic Rep. John Galloway. It’s not a sure thing, but Democrats are favored to hold onto the district, located north of Philadelphia and across the Delaware River from Trenton: In 2020, Biden would have carried it 56 percent to 43 percent. The seat’s importance to maintaining Democrats’ fragile House majority also helped Prokopiak build a massive fundraising advantage over Cabanas.
A Democratic win today would shore up their current 101-100 majority, while a Republican upset would wrest back control. (Although the chamber would be tied at 101-101, there would be one vacant seat previously held by a Republican — and per chamber rules, the House majority in the case of a tie goes to the party that last controlled the vacant seats.)
Meanwhile, four other state legislative special elections will also be held tonight: one in the Bronx, one in the Oklahoma City region and two in Georgia. While these are all expected to be relatively sleepy races, they’re worth noting as data points, to Nathaniel’s earlier note about special elections as predictors of national election results.
—Tia Yang, 538