New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip

Democrats cut into Republicans’ already narrow House majority.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: February 13, 2024, 7:00 PM EST

Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York’s 3rd District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip to flip a House seat from red to blue. (The seat was formerly held by Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after a series of scandals.) As a result, Republicans’ already narrow House majority has been reduced to 219-213.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors have been live-blogging the results in real time and breaking down what (if anything) they mean for November. Read our full analysis below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Leah Askarinam Image
ByLeah Askarinam
Feb 13, 2024, 10:50 PM EST

The messaging wars begin again

We’re seeing Democrats take a victory lap. And what they learn from this election is likely to inform how they frame their messaging in key races later this year, even if that’s not necessarily sound political analysis. Here’s a sampling of what I’m seeing Democrats saying publicly so far:

-Abortion is still a salient issue for Democrats in 2024, and so is the argument that the Republican Party has become too extreme.

-Republicans can’t make every congressional race a referendum on Biden’s handling of immigration.

-Trump has lost the suburbs, while Democrats still appeal to working-class voters.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

Brittany Shepherd Image
ByBrittany Shepherd
Feb 13, 2024, 10:47 PM EST

Sweet Victory

Valentine's Day came early with a election night ending before 11 p.m.

—Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Feb 13, 2024, 10:35 PM EST

That extra seat is big for Democrats

With the win tonight, Democrats have narrowed Republicans’ House majority to 219-213. That means Republicans will only be able to afford three defections on votes going forward — otherwise votes will be tied 216-216 and not pass. In addition, Democrats now need to flip only four Republican-held seats in the 2024 election to take back the House.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

G. Elliott Morris Image
ByG. Elliott Morris
Feb 13, 2024, 10:30 PM EST

ABC News has projected a winner

The ABC News decision desk is now affirming the calls from other sources, projecting that Tom Souzzi will win the race and flip a seat for the Democrats.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538