Democrats cut into Republicans’ already narrow House majority.
Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York’s 3rd District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip to flip a House seat from red to blue. (The seat was formerly held by Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after a series of scandals.) As a result, Republicans’ already narrow House majority has been reduced to 219-213.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors have been live-blogging the results in real time and breaking down what (if anything) they mean for November. Read our full analysis below.
We've talked about the fact that tonight's race was between an unusual pair of candidates, under unusual circumstances (special elections, Santos, snow storms, oh my!). But would we be election analysts if we didn't debate ... Does tonight's result tell us anything about November?
—Tia Yang, 538
After that first dump of votes from Nassau County about half an hour ago it looked like Suozzi could have pulled off a double-digit win over Pilip. But with more votes coming now, it looks like those were Democratic-friendly early votes, meaning the Democrat's margin will end up in the mid-to-high single digits.
That is higher than, but really not so not so different from, the polls. The four polls we got of the race with the final set of candidates had Suozzi up by an average of 3 points. So if he wins by 6-10 points, we'll have a 3-7 point polling error in terms of the margin between the candidates.
That's a lot less than the average error for a House general election poll, not to mention polls of House special elections (which tend to be even less accurate). So, maybe this a good reminder for everyone: trust the polls, not the vibes (within reason).
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
As he began his victory speech in front of supporters, Suozzi was briefly interrupted by a protester who accused him of supporting a genocide in Palestine. He used the moment to pivot to what he saw as the message of his campaign, one that's of course standard in politics: unity over division. "There are divisions in our country where people can’t even talk to each other," he said, adding that the solution was to stop bickering and political infighting and come together to solve problems ranging from immigration to local taxes. It was a message he said would reverberate throughout the country as we head to November.
—Monica Potts, 538
We’re seeing Democrats take a victory lap. And what they learn from this election is likely to inform how they frame their messaging in key races later this year, even if that’s not necessarily sound political analysis. Here’s a sampling of what I’m seeing Democrats saying publicly so far:
-Abortion is still a salient issue for Democrats in 2024, and so is the argument that the Republican Party has become too extreme.
-Republicans can’t make every congressional race a referendum on Biden’s handling of immigration.
-Trump has lost the suburbs, while Democrats still appeal to working-class voters.
—Leah Askarinam, 538
