Democrats cut into Republicans’ already narrow House majority.
Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York’s 3rd District, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip to flip a House seat from red to blue. (The seat was formerly held by Republican Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after a series of scandals.) As a result, Republicans’ already narrow House majority has been reduced to 219-213.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors have been live-blogging the results in real time and breaking down what (if anything) they mean for November. Read our full analysis below.
OK, OK, we all agree! There's even a caveat to Kaleigh's point about what the race can tell us about this district alone in November — the district lines may very well change due to redistricting by then.
Anyway, it's not even 11:30, and we're already getting ready to wrap up. Hit us with your final thoughts! What does everyone think is the biggest takeaway from Suozzi's win tonight?
—Tia Yang, 538
I think my main takeaway is that you can look at all of the issues that might look bad for Democrats — from Biden's low approval to voters worrying about immigration — and it just doesn't mean that Democrats can't win. There are so many forces at work. Voters are motivated to vote against Trump and the party that supports him, and see the Republican party as extreme on some issues, like abortion. It's something to keep in mind as we head into November. But otherwise, I agree with everyone else. Tonight was just one special election.
—Monica Potts, 538
The Dems will certainly point to tonight as evidence of all kinds of predictors for November (see Leah’s earlier post) but the reality is this was such strange circumstances and such a small pool of voters that it’s not going to tell us very much concrete about the general election. The only narrative I am willing to accept about tonight is the fact that this muddies any claims that NY-03 had shifted firmly to the right based on the last few elections, where Santos, Zeldin and Pinion (Chuck Schumer's challenger) won the district. It’s still a swingy area that will be one to watch in 10 months time!
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
In my opinion, Tia, there are too many factors that determined this one election outcome, and they are prone to overinterpretation by analysts. In fact you can pretty much choose your adventure with this race: You're a Democrat? Then Suozzi won because Democratic voters care less about those GOP-friendly issues — like immigration and crime — that elected Santos in 2020, and that Trump is running on now. You're a Republican? Then Suozzi won because he had a good ground game and Pilip suffered from low GOP turnout due to the snowstorm.
Look, it's as Geoffrey and Nathaniel say: One special is just one special, and shouldn't change our priors.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
