Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

Texas’s congressional map faces a number of legal challenges that federal courts have consolidated into one broader lawsuit. The core complaint centers on allegations that the GOP-controlled Texas legislature diluted Latino voter strength in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The plaintiffs claim mapmakers failed to add more seats with a majority Latino citizen voting-age population despite Latinos’ significant contribution to the state’s population growth and the state’s two-seat gain in reapportionment. Additionally, they accuse the mapmakers of weakening Latino voting strength in Texas’s 15th District, which the GOP flipped in the 2022 midterms.

The federal lower court has not proceeded with the case, however, in part because of delays regarding disputes over access to documents by legislators and other relevant parties. This has affected the process of discovery, which allows each side in a case to gather information about the evidence that will be presented at trial. As a result, it’s difficult to say how long it will be until this case moves forward. Considering Texas’s candidate filing deadline for its 2024 congressional primaries is Dec. 11, it’s very unlikely this case will be resolved before the next election cycle is fully underway.

Utah’s congressional map may need to be redrawn as well if a lawsuit currently before the Utah Supreme Court is successful.

In 2021, the Republican-controlled legislature drew a map that split Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County among all four of Utah’s congressional districts — a technique known as “cracking.” The lawsuit claims that this is a partisan gerrymander that violates the state constitution. Plaintiffs are also arguing that the legislature unconstitutionally defied the will of the people in 2020 when it watered down an anti-gerrymandering ballot measure that voters passed in 2018.

The Utah Supreme Court heard initial arguments in the case in July and have since asked for more arguments from both sides. But it’s unknown when the next round of arguments will be or when the court will rule. If the lawsuit is successful, it could result in Democrats picking up one seat in Utah, since any district anchored around the Salt Lake City area is likely to lean blue.

There isn’t currently a legal challenge pending against Wisconsin’s congressional map, but many people expect that the Badger State will have to redraw its lines sometime in the next few years. Why? Because with the election of Justice Janet Protasiewicz in 2023, control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court flipped from conservatives to liberals, making the court much more receptive to claims of partisan gerrymandering.

During her 2023 campaign, Protasiewicz called Wisconsin’s electoral maps “rigged,” and if the Wisconsin Supreme Court were to hear a challenge to the congressional map, she would likely join the court’s three other liberal justices in striking it down. Wisconsin’s congressional delegation currently consists of six Republicans and two Democrats, despite Biden winning the state 49.4 percent to 48.8 percent in 2020. A fairer map would likely result in Democrats picking up at least one seat.

Republicans in the legislature are already mobilizing against such an outcome. They have demanded that Protasiewicz recuse herself from any lawsuits over the map, threatening her with impeachment if she does not. Republicans have also proposed a compromise where an advisory redistricting commission would draw a new map, but the Republican-controlled legislature would still retain the final power to pass (or not pass) it.