South Carolina, Nevada primaries and Ohio special election: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: June 11, 2024, 5:25 PM EDT

June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.

Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 8:48 PM EDT

Mace is the first anti-McCarthy Republican to win an election

As we've noted, Mace was one of eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy from the speakership last year. Two (Ken Buck and Matt Rosendale) have already resigned or retired from Congress, and McCarthy allies were targeting many of the other six for defeat in primaries this year. Mace was the first of these to face voters, and she obviously survived, so pro-McCarthy forces are 0-for-1.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Jun 11, 2024, 8:46 PM EDT

Mace projected to win

The AP has projected that Nancy Mace will win the GOP nomination in South Carolina’s 1st District. It’s an early call for the embattled congresswoman who has angered both Trump allies and House GOP leadership over her two terms in Congress. She leads her opponent, 58 percent to 29 percent, with just over a quarter of the vote counted. Mace will be the favorite in the general election too, after the Supreme Court halted a lower court’s ruling that her district needed to be redrawn.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Nancy Mace walks to join other members of the House Oversight Committee, Dec. 13, 2023, at the Capitol in Washington.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jun 11, 2024, 8:43 PM EDT

I wonder which way election day votes will go in South Carolina’s 4th

Kaleigh, you raise an interesting question. Election day voters do tend to be more MAGA in primaries, similar to how they’re more Republican in general elections. (This isn’t surprising — Trump is the one who cast unfounded aspersions on the security of mail voting.) So I wonder who those votes will benefit today in South Carolina’s 4th. Timmons has Trump’s endorsement, but temperamentally, he’s not very bomb-throwy. Morgan, a member of the state House’s Freedom Caucus, fits that description much better, so maybe he’ll be the pick of election day voters? We shall see.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Kaleigh Rogers Image
ByKaleigh Rogers
Jun 11, 2024, 8:40 PM EDT

Timmons has taken the lead in South Carolina's 4th District

With 31 percent of the expected votes counted, incumbent Timmons has now taken the lead in South Carolina's 4th District. He currently has 54 percent of the vote to Morgan's 46 percent. Election day voters tend to be more conservative, but this is a district that is already the most conservative in the state, having gone for Trump 68 percent in 2020, so that’s slightly less of a factor here, and Timmons may have overcome that early surge from Morgan.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

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