Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

Folks who are reading a 538 live blog have probably seen the general election polling showing Trump leading nationally by 2-3 percentage points and leading in the battleground state by more like 3-5 points. That is the answer you are looking for if you want to understand the current state of the races. Emphasis on current, meaning 8 months before the actual election when polls are historically not predictive. Now, there may be caveats about polls shifting less than usual over the coming months because Trump and Biden are already so well defined. But that's a theory, not a fact.

One dynamic in the primary that I do think is worth thinking about in understanding whether those numbers will shift or how, is where the challenge is coming from in both parties. Trump is being challenged by someone who is ideologically closer to Biden than to his Right flank. Biden's most enthusiastic opposition is coming from his left flank, aka not ideologically anywhere close to Trump. Folks always have the option of staying home or voting third party, but if I was Trump's campaign I would not like that dynamic ... particularly given that Biden's victory in 2020 came from an overperformance among independent/moderate voters.

Look at me, doing the thing I just said we shouldn't do.

—Galen Druke, 538

With 28 percent of the expected vote reported, the Republican presidential primary in Vermont looks so close. Right now, Trump and Haley are tied with 48 percent.

—Monica Potts, 538

With 24 percent of the expected vote reporting, Trump is leading in Texas by 53 percentage points. Despite Trump's 65-point lead in the polls, likely GOP primary voters in Texas thought the race would be close in pre-election polling. In a February survey from the University of Texas at Tyler, just 17 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state thought Trump would win by a large margin, while 21 percent thought that Trump would win in a close election. Another 6 percent said they thought Trump would win, but weren't sure of what the margin would be. Most of the rest, 46 percent, said they weren't sure who would win, and just 3 percent thought Haley would win.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

ABC News projects that Trump will win the Tennessee Republican primary, his fourth win of the evening (and the night is young). Demographically, Tennessee was one of the best states for Trump, and it hasn't let him down tonight: He's currently leading 81 percent to 16 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538