Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

538 tracked how Trump and Haley did, plus key U.S. House and Senate races.

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


That's a wrap!

Well, reader, we were determined to keep this live blog going until every Super Tuesday race had been resolved, but even we have our limits. In preparation for next week's primary live blog, we're wrapping this one up. Here's where things stand in all the races we're still tracking:

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 16th District, we're still not sure who will join Democrat Sam Liccardo in the general election. Democrat Evan Low and Democrat Joe Simitian both currently have 17 percent of the vote, and Low is just 63 votes ahead of Simitian.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is a safe bet to advance, but it's a close race for second. Democrats Derek Tran and Kim Nguyen-Penaloza are both at 16 percent, with Tran just 256 votes ahead.

- With 98 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 8th District, Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just above the 30 percent threshold he needs to avoid a runoff. The AP has gone ahead and called the primary for Harris, but ABC News has not yet reported whether Harris will win outright or be forced into a runoff.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Democratic primary for Texas's 32nd District, Julie Johnson is similarly hovering at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. While the AP has called this race for Johnson, ABC News has not yet reported whether a runoff will be needed.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


New projections in California's 20th and 31st

We've got answers on two California House races that were still outstanding! In California's 20th District, ABC News reports that Republican Mike Boudreaux will make the general election, where he will face fellow Republican Vince Fong (who was already projected to advance). It's no surprise that no Democrats made the general election here, as this is the reddest seat in California. (It used to be represented by Kevin McCarthy.)

Similarly, in California's 31st District, ABC News reports that Republican Daniel Martinez will advance to the general election, joining Democrat Gil Cisneros (who was already projected to advance). That's good news for Cisneros; since this is a solidly blue seat, he will have no trouble in the general election against Martinez, whereas he would've faced a tougher campaign against a fellow Democrat.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


No runoff after all in North Carolina's 6th

Various news organizations (including ABC News) had projected that Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker would advance to a runoff election in North Carolina's 6th District. However, that contest has now been called off. According to Spectrum News's Reuben Jones, Walker is taking a job with Trump's campaign and will not request a runoff after all. (In North Carolina, the second-place finisher has to request a runoff, it doesn't happen automatically.)

This maneuver is probably not a coincidence given that Trump endorsed McDowell in December. Regardless, it means that McDowell will be the GOP nominee here and very likely the district's next congressman, since Trump carried the 6th District by 16 points in 2020.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538



Some projections in California

The general-election candidates are set in one of this fall's most competitive House races. ABC News reports that in California's 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas are projected to advance to the general election, setting up a rematch of the 2022 race that Valadao won by just 3 points.

In addition, ABC News reports that Democrat Sam Liccardo and Democrat Gil Cisernos are projected to make the general election in California's 16th and 31st districts, respectively. Their general-election opponents, however, are still TBD.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


California has 9 U.S. House races with noteworthy primaries

We're watching nine U.S. House primaries in California, five in seats that are broadly viewed as potentially competitive in November.

We'll start with the 22nd District in the Central Valley. Republican Rep. David Valadao faces a primary rematch with two of his 2022 opponents, former state Assemblymember Rudy Salas (a Democrat) and businessman Chris Mathys (a Republican). Valadao, who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6, only narrowly advanced to the general election ahead of Mathys before narrowly defeating Salas in November. Joining this year is Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, who could split the Democratic vote enough to give Republicans a shot at claiming both general election spots.

Four other competitive seats are partly or wholly in Orange County. First, the open 47th District is a top GOP target. Republicans have mostly rallied behind Scott Baugh, who lost this seat by only 3 points in 2022. Baugh looks likely to face one of two Democrats, state Sen. Dave Min or attorney Joanna Weiss, who are in an ugly fight for second place. Min has endorsements from Porter and the state party, but his position was weakened when he was cited for driving under the influence last May. Weiss has a slight fundraising edge, raising $2.2 million to Min's $1.7 million, and she's also received far more outside support. Next door in the 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will likely advance with one of two Democrats. Army veteran and attorney Derek Tran has led the way in fundraising with $647,000, and has earned endorsements from VoteVets and AAPI Victory Fund, while Garden Grove City Councilmember Kim Nguyen-Penaloza has raised $315,000, and has backing from the state party, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus's BOLD PAC and labor groups.

Nearby in the 40th District, Republican Rep. Young Kim is contending with two Democrats: retired Orange County Fire Capt. Joe Kerr and Tustin school board member Allyson Muñiz Damikolas. Kerr has raised $1.1 million to Damikolis's $550,000, but Kerr has self-funded much of his haul. Kerr has Gov. Gavin Newsom's endorsement as well as backing from various labor groups, while Damikolas has support from EMILY's List, BOLD PAC and 314 Action. To the south, four mostly self-funding Republicans are vying to take on Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in the 49th District. Advertising executive Margarita Wilkinson has loaned her campaign $1.5 million of the $1.8 million she's raised, while car dealership owner Matt Gunderson has self-funded $700,000 of his $1.2 million total. The same is true of the other two candidates, Marine veteran Kate Monroe and auto-industry executive Sheryl Adams, who've raised less than $400,000 each.

The remaining races are in safe seats, where it's possible — even likely — that two candidates from the same party will advance to November. Jacob will have more on those races shortly, and you can read about them in our full California (and Alabama) race preview from last week.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538