Who will win the last big election of 2023?

As 2023 comes to a close, one of the most powerful local offices in the country is up for grabs.

On Saturday, voters in Houston will decide the next mayor of the fourth-largest city in the country. The election hasn't gotten much media attention outside of Texas, but it's well worth paying attention to. Not only is the election the latest example of the progressive-versus-centrist divide that has defined other major mayoral and congressional races in recent years, but voters are also electing a powerful politician.

"The mayor runs the city, period," said former Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. "We have a very strong form of government where the mayor dominates."

The primary election for this nonpartisan position took place in November, but no candidate topped 50 percent, prompting a runoff between the top two vote-getters, both of whom were Democrats: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who has represented Houston in Congress since 1995, and state Sen. John Whitmire, who's been in the state legislature since 1973.

Both candidates have emphasized their experience working with stakeholders of various, competing interests in order to deliver results to Houstonians. But Jackson Lee has played up her record in Congress and ties to national Democrats — which makes sense in a city that voted for President Joe Biden 65 percent to 33 percent in 2020. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton personally campaigned for Jackson Lee in Houston, and former President Bill Clinton endorsed her last week. Jackson Lee also has endorsements from outgoing Mayor Sylvester Turner, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

"The congresswoman has portrayed herself as a staunch Democrat who has known how to work the levers of power in Washington and bring money back to the area and take care of her constituents, and she's very visible," Emmett said. "And her whole focus has been on that, on … the rock-solid Democrat base."

That said, Whitmire is also a lifelong Democrat, Emmett added, with endorsements from Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia and several Democratic members of the state legislature. But Whitmire is clearly the more centrist candidate in the race, running as a tough-on-crime pragmatist who worked across the aisle in the GOP-dominated Texas Senate. Protect and Serve PAC, which supports Whitmire, has campaigned against Jackson Lee by tying her to the movement to defund the police, including sending mailers accusing her of working with Rep. Ilhan Omar. (Jackson Lee, for her part, has spent much of the campaign reiterating her record bringing additional funding to local police and plans to tap into federal funds to invest in anti-crime initiatives.)

Whitmire also has a massive financial advantage. Jackson Lee spent $341,000 between Oct. 29 and Nov. 29 and entered the home stretch of the campaign with just $235,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Whitmire reported spending nearly $3 million between Oct. 29 and Nov. 29, and Protect and Save PAC has spent more than $500,000 in the same time period. Whitmire also reported having $3 million in the bank, which could go far in the last week of the election.

With two politicians who have spent, combined, more than 80 years in elected office, both candidates in the race have had their share of bad press. For Jackson Lee, one of the biggest challenges has been overcoming news stories about alleged poor treatment of her staff. The Houston Chronicle looked into Legistorm records spanning the last two decades and found that, excluding temporary workers, her staff tended to stick around for fewer than eight months on average, the highest turnover rate among Texas House members and among the highest turnover rate in Congress. The Chronicle also looked into Whitmire's work as an attorney and found numerous examples of the state senator "blurring lines between his public and private roles." And there are plenty of other instances of their long histories in public service becoming campaign fodder for the mayoral race. For example, Whitmire previously expressed opposition to legal abortion — in 1972, according to a deep dive by the Chronicle.

Texas politicos largely agree that Whitmire has the upper hand going into election day. He received 43 percent of the vote in the primary, while Jackson Lee got just 36 percent. And the only public poll of the race, conducted Nov. 13-18 by SurveyUSA and sponsored by the University of Houston, found that little has changed: Whitmire led 42 percent to 35 percent among likely voters.

Much of Whitmire's competitive edge stems from the fact that, while both candidates are Democrats, the election isn't a Democratic primary. Republicans and independents will also be voting on Dec. 9. "Jackson Lee has got no path to victory," said Chris Tomlinson, a columnist for Hearst newspapers in Texas. "Whitmire is dividing the Democratic vote, and he's winning the Republican vote and most of the independent vote."

Indeed, while Jackson Lee led in the SurveyUSA poll among Democratic voters, 55 percent to 25 percent, Whitmire led among independent voters 46 percent to 26 percent — and Republicans supported Whitmire over Jackson Lee 68 percent to 12 percent. "​​He's always been a conservative Democrat," Tomlinson said of Whitmire. "And for him to run as a conservative Democrat is a surefire path to victory."

Jackson Lee's real base of support seems like it is Black voters. According to the SurveyUSA poll, Black voters favored her over Whitmire 63 percent to 15 percent. Meanwhile, white voters supported Whitmire by a very similar margin: 63 percent to 20 percent.

But while Black people (23 percent) and white people (24 percent) make up a similar share of Houston's population, a plurality (45 percent) of the city's population is Latino, and it's these voters who might put Whitmire over the top. Hispanic voters polled by SurveyUSA supported Whitmire over Jackson Lee, 43 percent to 23 percent.

However, public polling of the race has been sparse, and drawing sweeping conclusions from crosstabs can be a fraught business. So an upset win by Jackson Lee can't be ruled out. Her path to victory likely depends on a low-turnout election in which Black, Democratic voters who know and support the congresswoman are more motivated to turn out than Whitmire's supporters. But the early vote, which ended Tuesday, doesn't seem promising, meaning the election day vote will be key. "It's going to be a challenge getting people out to vote," acknowledged Houston Federation of Teachers President Jackie Anderson, who backs Jackson Lee. "We agree that this race will be won on the ground. Her opponent has millions of dollars and has spent millions of dollars on this race."

Anderson said that one of the challenges is reminding voters that, even though they already voted for mayor in November, they have to do it again in the runoff.

"We are optimistic," Anderson said. "It's just, we have to make sure our voters vote."

Cooper Burton contributed research.