Inflation slows significantly as gas prices drop in July

The slowdown coincides with a series of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

August 10, 2022, 1:04 PM

Inflation data released on Wednesday revealed that price increases slowed in July, easing the strain on household budgets as the Federal Reserve fights inflation with a series of borrowing cost hikes.

While still elevated, price hikes waned from the near-historic pace reached in June, giving hope to policymakers and consumers that inflation has peaked.

The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 8.5% over the past year as of July, a marked slowdown from 9.1% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 1.3% in July, remaining unchanged from the rise seen in June, according to the bureau. While food and shelter costs increased over the last month, the gasoline index price fell 7.7% in July to offset those increases.

Speaking at the White House during a bill-signing ceremony on Wednesday, President Joe Biden touted the inflation data, saying it showed "some signs" that U.S. price increases may be "beginning to moderate."

The price of regular unleaded gas is advertised for just under $4 a gallon at a Woodman's, Wednesday, July 20, 2022, in Menomonie Falls, Wis.
Morry Gash/AP, FILE

He did caution that the work is "far from over" to tame inflation as global challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and COVID-19 shutdowns in Asia, could cause "additional headwinds in the months ahead."

The inflation data arrives as other indicators have sent mixed signals about the economy in recent weeks.

A slowdown in the inflation rate emerged in part because the national average price of gasoline, which makes up a key portion of the consumer price index, has declined for more than 50 consecutive days, according to AAA.

Meanwhile, a government report on Friday revealed that hiring in July more than doubled economists' expectations, defying Fed efforts to slow the economy and rebuking fears of a recession.

The significant uptick in hiring last month -- an added 528,000 jobs and unemployment rate drop to 3.5% -- came alongside elevated wage increases that may put upward pressure on consumer prices.

The heightened wage increases match a pattern that stretches back months. A closely observed measure of U.S. wages, called unit-labor costs, rose 9.5% over the second quarter of this year, the fastest rise of that metric since the first quarter of 1982, according to data released by the federal government on Tuesday.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference in Washington, D.C., July 27, 2022.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters, FILE

When facing high inflation, policymakers fear what's referred to as a price-wage spiral, in which a rise in prices prompts workers to demand raises that help them afford goods, which in turn pushes up prices, leading to a self-perpetuating cycle of runaway inflation.

The Fed has sought to avoid a price-wage spiral with a series of borrowing cost increases, Maurice Obstfeld, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, told ABC News. At meetings in each of the past two months, the central bank has increased its benchmark interest rate 0.75% -- dramatic hikes last matched in 1994.

"The data is telling us not that rate hikes have been ineffective but that the Fed will have to go quite a bit further," Obstfeld said.

However, other data suggests that inflation fears have waned significantly.

A survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed that consumers expect inflation to slow down.

Individuals who responded to the July survey said they expect inflation to run at a 6.2% pace over the next year and a 3.2% rate for the next three years, both of which marked significant declines from the inflation expectations expressed by consumers in the month prior.

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