Ask Matt: Should I buy McDonald's or an energy stock?

ByABC News
March 19, 2012, 8:55 PM

— -- Q: I'd like to invest in either McDonald's or an energy company. Which should I choose?

A: Some people like greasy burgers. But it sounds like you're not sure if you want grease or burgers in your portfolio.

Your short list of stock candidates is an interesting one. Investors will often choose an industry first, and then try to narrow down which company in that industry to buy. But it sounds like you're targeting either a single stock in the restaurant industry or perhaps trying to choose a stock in the energy sector.

McDonald's sells food, which is considered to be what investors call a consumer staple. People need to eat no matter how the economy is faring, and during an economic slowdown, some people who used to go to expensive restaurants might go to McDonald's more frequently. Consumer staples tend to be good investments when the economy is expected to be sluggish, which investors call a countercyclical investment.

Energy stocks, on the other hand, are cyclical. More energy is consumed when the economy is humming along as companies produce more goods, which are transported and delivered. With greater demand for energy, the price typically rises. That's why energy is a cyclical investment.

So, the first decision you might consider when weighing McDonald's stock vs. shares of an energy company would be your expectation for the economy. If you think the economy is going to sputter again, then you might want to go for McDonald's which will likely fare better than an energy stock.

However, if you think the economy will continue to heal, an energy stock will likely make more sense.

It's not just a theory. During the bear market between 2008 and 2010, energy stocks suffered. Shares of Exxon Mobil fell nearly 45% between early 2008 and July 2010. Meanwhile, shares of McDonald's rose between 2008 and 2010 and rose even further in 2011.

There are other ways to compare and contrast stocks. Some investors, for instance, may compare the dividend payments made by the companies and use that information to make a decision. Exxon Mobil has a dividend yield of 2.2%, while McDonald's yields 2.8%. That's hardly enough of a difference to worry about.

A much bigger influence on the future value of the stocks will be the direction of the economy. Once you determine that, then you have gone a far way in determining which stock is best.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies and Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Follow Matt on Twitter at: twitter.com/mattkrantz