Ask Matt: What are the chances Facebook will return to $38?

— -- Q: What are the chances that Facebook shares get back to their $38 a share IPO price?

That was the price, $38 a share, at which the much-hyped social-networking stock was first offered to investors. Buyers hoping to not miss out on their second chance at a dot-com boom jumped into the stock, despite warnings it might be overvalued and signs of trouble with its mobile business.

The price investors paid is now infamous. While Facebook briefly rose to $45 a share on the first day of trading, it was nothing but down from then on. Shares of Facebook have fallen to a low of $25.52, and only now have they been enjoying somewhat of a comeback, closing roughly at $31 a share on the last day of June.

Given the limited trading history of Facebook stock and the immaturity of its business model, it's difficult to put an appropriate price tag on the company using traditional metrics. Perhaps the difficulty in valuing the company explains some of the volatility in the stock's first weeks of trading.

One of the biggest questions about Facebook is how it's going to make money as more people access the service using a mobile device. Adding to that is the already lofty valuation the company has. S&P Capital IQ analyst Scott Kessler expects Facebook to boost revenue by 40% this year, which is many times greater than the growth rate of the S&P 500. But due to the rising use of mobile devices to access Facebook, which is less profitable for the company, Kessler expects it to be trading at $27 a share, below its IPO price, in 12 months.

With the stock trading for nearly 80 times its earnings in the past 12 months, investors are pricing Facebook for near perfection and then some. Even if Facebook achieves 40% growth, that still gives it a PEG (price-to-earnings growth) ratio of 2, which is lofty even for many growth investors.

But there are analysts out there who think the stock can break the IPO price barrier. The 12-month stock price consensus estimate of all the analysts covering Facebook is $40 a share. Despite the stock's troubles, 12 of the 25 Wall Street analysts who follow the stock rate it a strong buy.

The answer to your question will be contained in the first corporate profit reports that Facebook issues as a public company. If it's able to defy expectations and deliver strong results despite skepticism about the effectiveness of its ads, it may take a trip to $38 again. But if the stagnation of growth of users continues, along with questions on its ability to charge for mobile use, the stock might be in for some trouble.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies and Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Follow Matt on Twitter at: twitter.com/mattkrantz