By the numbers: Where the economy stands on Election Day

The tumultuous presidential campaign has featured a replacement at the top of the Democratic ticket, two apparent assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump and the unexpected significance of a joke made in the race’s final days.

Despite the twists and turns, voters have voiced a consistent priority: the economy matters most. A Gallup poll last month showed that 52% of voters consider the economy an extremely important influence on their choice for president, far outpacing any other concern.

With polls set to close within hours, ABC News spoke with experts to discuss where the economy stands at the conclusion of the race. Here’s a look at the state of the economy on Election Day, by the numbers.

Prices

Inflation has bedeviled the U.S. for the past several years -- but in recent months price increases have slowed back down to a normal pace.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% in September compared to a year ago, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That finding indicates that inflation has cooled dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, hovering right near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

Not only have price increases slowed, but some costs have even fallen, including the all-important price of gasoline. The nationwide average cost of a gallon of gas stands at $3.10, which amounts to a 9% decline from where gas prices stood a year ago, AAA data shows.

“Gas prices have finally quieted down,” Patrick de Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told ABC News. He contrasted a relatively calm year for gas markets in 2024 with previous disruptions from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

While overall inflation has basically returned to normal, the progress cannot undo a leap in prices that dates back to the pandemic. Since the outset of 2021, consumer prices have skyrocketed more than 20%.

The persistence of elevated price levels amid slowing inflation may explain why consumers remain relatively dour about the economy, Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at Harvard University, told ABC News.

Consumer attitudes have improved over recent months, but they remain far more sour than they were before the pandemic, according to a survey by the University of Michigan.

“The economy really has been better,” Frankel said. “It’s an enormous puzzle for economists as to why public perceptions show something different.”

Economic performance

When assessed on a range of measures, the U.S. economy passes with a clean bill of health, experts said.

The U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% annualized rate over three months ending in September, slowing slightly from the previous quarter but continuing to dispel any concern about a possible slowdown, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data released last week.

The latest finding marked the nation’s 10th consecutive quarter of economic growth.

“It’s a miracle that we managed to get inflation under control as fast as we did, without crushing the economy,” Steven Hamilton, a professor of economics at George Washington University, told ABC News.

The labor market has slowed but proven resilient in recent months. Employers hired 254,000 workers in September, far exceeding economist expectations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.

Last month, the U.S. added just 10,000 jobs, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation’s workers. The unemployment rate stands at a historically low level of 4.1%.

“If there’s a slight cloud over the economy, it’s that the labor market has softened,” Hamilton said.

The cooldown of the nation’s labor market has coincided with a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Even after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate last month, it still stands at an elevated level between 4.75% and 5%.

High rates have made borrowing costly for businesses, while pushing up loan rates for credit cards and mortgages. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.72%, which marks an increase from 6.08% in September. Before the pandemic, the average mortgage rate stood between 3% and 4%.