Review: Winner Take All by Dambisa Moyo

— -- What is the greatest threat to American prosperity? In the run-up to November's election, much will be written about risks posed by the national debt, stubbornly high unemployment and the potential trans-Atlantic impact should the Eurozone break apart.

Yet in the long run, a more fundamental danger looms — one that puts the standard of living enjoyed by most Americans and citizens of the wider developed world at risk. That danger, articulated by author Dambisa Moyo, is an emerging global shortage of several key commodities — including oil, gas, minerals, food, and even water.

As Moyo argues in Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What it Means for the Rest of the World, the most significant crisis in coming decades will be the rise of acute resource scarcity and its impact on both individual lifestyles and global geopolitics.

In a world where finite — and in some cases dwindling — commodities face the rising demands of a new global middle class, conflict, she warns, could proliferate. Yet even if major wars are avoided, one country, thanks to a current commodity procurement binge, will hold a distinct geopolitical advantage.

"Of all the world's great powers," Moyo writes, "only one, China, has focused its economic and political strategy on anticipating the considerable challenges presented by a resource-scarce future."

Moyo, a Zambian-born economist, is best known for her 2009 book Dead Aid: Why Aid is Not Working and How There is Another Way For Africa. The controversial work argues that decades of development assistance to Africa have fostered dependency, abetted corruption, and ultimately stifled growth.

Winner Take All, her third book, is no less provocative — largely due to its gloomy vision of the future. According to Moyo, we are approaching an era when commodity prices will "skyrocket to permanently higher levels," and persistent resource shortfalls will "consign hundreds of millions of people to inescapable poverty."

As Moyo admits, alarm bells over resource scarcity are nothing new: as early as 1798, the English demographer and economist Thomas Malthus predicted a future of war and famine as population grew and food production remained finite — an argument that has largely been discredited due to technological advances.

According to Moyo, technology-driven gains in productivity have "delayed our day of reckoning." Yet, she writes, "It's far from clear that they will do so forever."

Whether or not her argument proves correct, one cannot fault Moyo for a lack of research. Though just 272 pages, Winner Take All is replete with illuminating facts and figures —including nuggets of information that keep the pages turning. Readers will learn:

• It takes 12,009 gallons of water to produce a pound of beef.

• Proven oil reserves, if extracted at current production levels, are enough to last just 46 more years.

•Global copper supply, by 2020, is projected to meet just over half of global copper demand.

Most remarkable, however, may be a fact that illuminates China's central role in Moyo's thesis. As she notes, the Chinese government plans to build 225 new cities of at least 1 million people by 2020 as part of a plan to streamline migration from the countryside.