We Will Live Longer in 2050, Study Predicts

Experts say the government has got it wrong on life expectancy in the future.

ByABC News
December 14, 2009, 10:35 AM

Dec. 14, 2009— -- A group of prominent researchers predict Americans living in the next 40 years will be much older than the government currently predicts.

Members of the MacArthur Research Network on an Aging Society released a report Monday contending that the U.S. Social Security Administration and Census Bureau have misjudged the average American lifespan in 2050 by three to eight years.

By the group's estimates women would to live to be 89 to 94 on average instead of the government's estimate of 83 to 85 years. For men, the group expects they will live to be 83 to 86 instead of the government's projection of 80 years average life expectancy in 2050.

S. Jay Olshansky, co-author of the report, said a few extra years life might not sound important, but it will cost us socially and financially.

"The economic implications for the U.S. economy are huge. We estimated we would be spending $3.2 to $8.3 trillion more in today's dollars than currently projected," said Olshansky, a professor in the school of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Olshansky sees a future where more people will demand new transportation methods, medical care and new retirement paths than the younger population can provide.

For decades, the government has issued lifespan projections that have proved to be reasonably accurate. A male born in the early 1900s was expected to reach his 60s, while a male born in 2005 was projected to make it to age 74, according to projections by the U.S. Social Security Administration.

But Olshansky and his colleagues argue the government's projections don't take into account the likelihood that current advances in biomedical technology could lengthen lifespans. His aging group predicts these advances will fight diseases in a new way or even slow the aging process.

"The government is anticipating that the rate of improvement in life expectancy will decelerate," said Olshansky, who published the report Monday in The Milbank Quarterly. "We suggest the opposite."

Medicine has already begun to fight cancer based on an individual's genes, leading many to expect a boost in life expectancy. Olshansky and colleagues also theorize that advances made in animal research with translate to humans, such as experiment that showed gene and hormone manipulation have prolonged the life.